Morning Bid: Reality check for China stocks, dollar rips higher

10/09/2024

2 minutes read

2024.10.09 18:00

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Attention in Asia on Thursday is likely to center on Chinese stocks, and whether the previous day’s steep selloff extends further, and the U.S. dollar, which is on its longest winning streak in more than two years.

The economic calendar is light, with only wholesale inflation and bank lending figures from Japan, and Philippines trade data, on deck.

Currency and rates markets could get more impetus from Bank of Japan deputy governor Ryozo Himino and Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Sarah Hunter, who are scheduled to speak at separate events in Japan and Australia, respectively.

The foreign exchange market, and the U.S. dollar in particular, is increasingly playing on the minds of investors across the continent.

The New Zealand dollar fell 1.3% on Wednesday after the country’s central bank delivered a 50-basis point cut in interest rates and indicated it will ease policy further in the coming months. The has weakened 5% this month, making it the worst-performing major currency in the world this month.

The greenback rose against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday for an eighth day, its best run since March-April, 2022, as the ongoing resilience of the U.S. economy draws flows into U.S. assets and forces investors to rethink their dovish outlook for U.S. interest rates.

Demand for U.S. assets from Asia is also strong.

Thursday may be a good test for Chinese markets, following Wednesday’s reality check. After surging as much as 40% in just six trading days, benchmark equity indices in China slumped 7% on Wednesday for their biggest one-day losses since February 2020.

Will the pullback provide a more attractive entry point for investors who missed that initial whoosh? If so, the rally may have more to run, but a second day of losses may suggest investors need more from Beijing.

China’s finance ministry will flesh out its plans to boost the economy at a news conference on Saturday, a sign that Beijing may be ready to roll out more forceful policies to revive growth.

The People’s Bank of China, meanwhile, has steered the yuan away from the 7.00 per dollar level, at least for now. Tuesday’s fixing of 7.0709/$ was 0.9% higher than the previous fix, marking the biggest one-day rise since May 2022.

Wednesday’s fix was a bit lower but still comfortably above pre-Golden Week holiday levels.

In Japan, inflationary pressures are expected to have eased in September, with annual wholesale price inflation falling to 2.3% from 2.5% in August. That would be the lowest since April.

The monthly rate of deflation is expected to accelerate to -0.3% from -0.2%, which would be the fastest rate of month-on-month decline since May last year.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

– Japan wholesale inflation (September)