Morning Bid: Nvidia watch party over, back to inflation vigil

08/29/2024

2 minutes read

2024.08.29 00:57

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu

It is a sea of red in Asia as AI darling Nvidia (NASDAQ:) failed to meet expectations of investors who were not satisfied with its profits, revenue and outlook simply beating the Street.

Nvidia shares have rallied more than 150% this year thanks to insatiable demand for generative artificial intelligence (AI), so the 7% drop in its shares after-hours could turn out to be just another dip to buy into the world’s second-most valuable company.

However, with valuations sky high, it is probably time for some caution. Taiwan-listed shares of chipmaker TSMC slid 2%, Nasdaq futures dropped 0.7%, and Europe is set for a lower open, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures off 0.2%.

Next up, Germany and Spain will publish their preliminary inflation readings for August later in the day. And a few European Central Bank officials will be taking part in some panel discussions.

Headline inflation is expected to slow to 2.3% for Germany and 2.5% for Spain. Any downward surprises there will feed into the eurozone inflation reading due on Friday and add to the case of consecutive policy easings from the ECB for the rest of the year.

Swaps imply a cut in September is a done deal, but they are less sure about the chance of a move in October and December, pricing in just about 60 basis points of easing by the year end.

The often volatile U.S. jobless claims report, due later in the day, has also gained prominence after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell declared policymakers do not wish to see further weakening in the labour market.

Elsewhere, currency markets were mostly steady in the Asia session. The dollar rose 0.6% to a fresh 2024 high of $0.6281 after a local survey showed a huge turnaround in business activity fuelled by a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

U.S. Treasury yields were also quiet, although the inverted curve between two- and 10-years came within a whisker of turning positive. That would be the first time since July 2022, barring the brief un-inverting during the Japanese market crash earlier this month.

Two-year yields held at 3.8671%, just 3 basis points higher than 10-year yields.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

– Spain, Germany preliminary CPI for August

– U.S. weekly jobless claims

– Panel participation from ECB chief economist Philip R. Lane