Morning Bid: Notre-Dame rebuilt, as Paris nears collapse
2024.12.03 00:46
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
France is still the center of Europe’s attention on Tuesday, with the government all-but-certain to collapse after both the right wing and left wing submitted no-confidence motions.
The final straw was Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s attempt to ram a social security bill through parliament without a vote, setting the fragile coalition up on Wednesday to be the first French government forced out by a no-confidence vote since 1962.
It plunges Europe further into political crisis as the year ends, with Germany facing snap elections following the collapse of the government there, just as Donald Trump is about to come back to the White House, threatening huge tariffs on the region for not buying enough American cars and farm produce.
France, though, can at least celebrate something of a warming of ties with the President-elect. Trump lauded Paris’ reconstruction of the Notre-Dame Cathedral and will attend its reopening on Saturday in his first foreign trip since his election win.
The euro remained on the back foot on Tuesday, but pan-European STOXX 50 futures pointed higher, riding the wave of positivity from fresh record highs on Wall Street.
The economic data calendar is empty today in Europe, but a pre-recorded interview with ECB board member Piero Cipollone will be aired at an event in Milan.
Fed speakers include Chicago Fed boss Austan Goolsbee and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler in Chicago and Detroit, respectively.
The macro highlight of the day will be the U.S. JOLTS job openings, a favourite among Fed officials, which acts as a prelude to Friday’s all-important monthly payrolls report.
Bets on a quarter-point rate cut on Dec. 18 have been on the rise, and now stand at 75% on CME’s FedWatch Tool, up from 66% a day earlier and 52% a week ago.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
-ECB’s Cipollone pre-recorded interview airing
-Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee, Governor Kugler speak at separate events
-U.S. JOLTS job openings (Oct)
