Morning Bid: No end in sight for Trump-fuelled trade
2024.11.14 01:00
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee
Market movement over the past week or so since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election have been characterised by a turbo-charged rally in bitcoin, higher Treasury yields and a relentless U.S. dollar. And Thursday was no different.
Never mind that traders are now pricing in an over 80% chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month after Wednesday’s inflation report. The prospect of a cut would usually send the dollar down but it rose to a one-year high anyway, riding a wave of bullish momentum from Trump’s victory.
The President-elect’s promise of tax cuts could juice the economy, widen budget deficits and increase government borrowing – all of which have already pushed long-end Treasury yields higher. [US/]
His plans for hefty import tariffs are also expected to stoke inflation and reduce the Fed’s scope to ease policy.
With projections the Republican Party is likely to control both houses of Congress when Trump takes office in January, he’s set for sweeping power to push his agenda.
In Europe, markets will wake up to the release of the euro zone’s second estimate for gross domestic product growth and third-quarter flash employment data.
Preliminary figures in October showed the bloc grew faster than market watchers expected in the third quarter from the previous three months, though stayed fragile as industry remained in recession and household consumption barely grew.
Later in the day, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak in Dallas after having had time to digest the U.S. October producer prices report that will be released just beforehand.
PPI figures feed more directly into the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures price index, which arrives later in the month.
Still, there is only so much Powell can say for 2025 and beyond given much depends on what Trump does when he takes office.
Trump has already made a flurry of picks for his cabinet and other high-ranking administration positions, spanning posts overseeing defence, intelligence, diplomacy, trade, immigration and economic policymaking.
Sources told Reuters that billionaire banker Howard Lutnick has emerged as a contender alongside investor Scott Bessent for the top Treasury job.
Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:
– Second estimate of Q3 euro zone GDP
– Euro zone Q3 flash employment
– U.S. weekly jobless claims
– U.S. October PPI
– Fed’s Powell speaks
(By Rae Wee; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
