Morning Bid: Inflation waiting game turns worrisome
2024.06.27 00:48
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
So much for a week watching football and cricket while counting down to Friday’s blockbuster U.S. personal consumption price index.
The waiting has turned bumpy following unnerving inflation surprises in Canada and Australia, a slump in the yen and a negative reaction to solid results at Micron (NASDAQ:).
Shares in the chipmaker, seen as an industry bellwether due to its exposure to varied chip types and customers, slid 8% in after-hours trade and dragged down Nasdaq futures.
Australia’s bond market has taken a kicking, with three-year government bond futures down 26 ticks in two sessions as the risk of another rate hike climbs. bank stocks dropped in anticipation of economic pain and bond proxies from utilities to real estate were punished beyond ex-dividend selling. ()
The pace of expected rate cuts in Canada has pared back.
The yen, meanwhile, skidded to lifetime lows on the euro and its lowest since 1986 at 160.88 per dollar on Wednesday, hovering near those levels in the Asia session while Japan’s finance minister reiterated concern.
The yen is down about 12% on the dollar this year, the biggest fall of any G10 currency, driven mostly by the wide gap between U.S. interest rates – above 5% at the short end – and Japanese rates which are around zero.
Euro zone confidence, services and economic sentiment surveys are due on Thursday, as is final U.S. GDP data, though both are likely to be overshadowed by the PCE reading, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure due on Friday.
CNN also broadcasts the first U.S. presidential debate, where debt and the dollar are likely to feature in the discussion, though markets have thus far struggled to come to grips with the implications of November’s election outcome.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump will have their microphones muted when it is not their turn to talk.
Voters see Republican candidate Trump as better for the economy but prefer his Democratic rival President Biden’s approach on preserving democracy, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found. In swing states, however, according to a Washington Post poll, more voters trust Trump to safeguard democracy.
How do you price that in?
Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:
Euro zone sentiment surveys
U.S. GDP
U.S. presidential debate
