Morning Bid: Green light from financial conditions, FX calm
2024.05.05 18:09
By Jamie McGeever
(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
Investor sentiment in Asia is set to open the week on a positive note on Monday, buoyed by last week’s upward momentum in global stocks, calmer currency markets, and a general easing of financial conditions.
The main regional calendar events include services PMI figures from China and first-quarter GDP data from Indonesia, while Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Paris for talks with President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Investors will be hoping the rise in risk appetite following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s relatively dovish steer on the U.S. interest rate outlook on Wednesday continues into this week.
Wall Street and the hit three-week highs on Friday – had its best day since Feb. 22 – while the index climbed to its highest since February last year.
Asian stocks’ trough-to-peak rise in the last two weeks has been an eye-catching 8%.
U.S. earnings have, on the whole, been strong and company guidance generally bullish, the Fed appears reluctant to raise rates again and signs of softer economic data are keeping hopes of rate cuts this year alive.
Global and emerging market financial conditions eased significantly last week, and are now the loosest since March 22, Goldman Sachs’s financial conditions indicators show.
Liquidity will be lighter than usual on Monday as London markets are closed for a holiday. Could the Bank of Japan take advantage and show its hand in the FX market?
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The dollar plunged almost 5% against the yen last week on the back of two suspected bouts of intervention from Japan, one on Monday and one on Wednesday.
U.S. futures market data show hedge funds cut back their historically high short yen positions in the week through last Tuesday. That was probably accelerated by the yen’s surge, and it is not unreasonable to think that some froth from the wider bearish Asia/bullish dollar trade has come off too.
Indonesia’s GDP figures on Monday are expected to show the economy grew at an annual rate of 5.00% in the first quarter, a Reuters poll showed, slightly lower than Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati’s forecast of 5.17%.
But seasonal factors are expected to mean GDP shrank 0.89% from the previous three months.
Indonesia’s central bank last month delivered a surprise rate hike in a bid to support the rupiah which had fallen to a four-year low. Bank Indonesia’s 7-day reverse repurchase rate is now 6.25%, the highest since it became the main policy rate in 2016.
On the political and diplomatic front, China’s Xi Jinping is in Europe – his first visit to the continent in five years – and trade is high on the agenda, with France’s Macron set to urge Xi to reduce trade imbalances.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:
– China Caixin services PMI
– Indonesia GDP (Q1)
– Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Europe
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(Reporting and Writing by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Diane Craft)
