Economic news

Morning Bid: Global inflation relief lifts bond yield gloom

2025.01.15 17:24

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. 

At last, some breathing room for investors after U.S. and UK inflation figures on Wednesday eased the vice-like grip that the soaring dollar and global bond yields had increasingly been exerting over markets.

It is too early to say this marks a turning point, but fixed income and emerging markets have been beaten down so much lately that they were primed for a ‘good news’ reversal. Upbeat U.S. bank earnings and, on the margins, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will also help support market sentiment on Thursday.

But it’s the UK and especially the U.S. inflation news that will drive markets more, and the rapid slide in bond yields and jump in stocks should pave the way for a positive day in Asia on Thursday.

These numbers may not ultimately alter the Fed’s direction or even pace of rate cuts this year. But they do take the heat off policymakers and buy them more time to assess their next steps.

For investors, they were instant triggers to reverse some of the bond selling that had snowballed in recent weeks and which had started to bleed into equity markets. Yields across the U.S. Treasury curve posted their biggest one-day declines since Nov. 25, and rates traders brought forward the next expected Fed rate cut to June from September.

Curiously, however, the impact on the dollar was muted. It fell sharply against the yen, but barely budged against the euro. Perhaps country-specific factors are playing a greater role in setting exchange rates right now rather than solely U.S. yields and rate expectations.

That may be the case in Asia, where policy and politics are spicing up local markets. Indonesia’s rupiah sank to its lowest in more than six months and the country’s stocks leaped on Wednesday after the central bank delivered a surprise rate cut.

Not one of the 30 analysts polled by Reuters expected the move.

The Bank of Korea delivers its latest decision on Thursday, and it could not be at a more volatile time for the country, after impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested on Wednesday and questioned for hours by investigators in relation to a criminal insurrection probe.

The BoK is expected to cut its base rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, according to 27 out of 34 economists polled by Reuters, with the remaining seven forecasting no change.

Given the tense domestic political situation and in light of the cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data, could the BoK surprise markets with a 50 bps cut to try and boost growth and loosen financial conditions? 

Bank Indonesia’s shock move shows that even unanimous consensus forecasts are not always the one-way bet they might seem.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

– South Korea interest rate decision

© Reuters. Passersby look at an electronic board displaying Topix, Japan's Nikkei share averages, and Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo

– South Korea fallout from President Yoon’s arrest

– Australia unemployment (December)



Source link

Related Articles

Back to top button
bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 104,985.13 0.55%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 3,336.59 1.38%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 3.14 0.98%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00 0.01%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 258.80 4.76%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 688.77 0.95%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.353957 1.51%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 1.00 0.01%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.988627 1.43%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 3,333.20 1.54%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.253232 0.82%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 25.59 2.35%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 37.62 6.52%
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 3,976.05 1.62%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 104,901.11 0.52%
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.347335 4.09%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.422312 1.53%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 5.06 0.41%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 4.17 0.46%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.00002 0.68%
weth
WETH (WETH) $ 3,337.36 1.46%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 6.34 0.71%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 123.65 1.64%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 9.78 0.15%
bitget-token
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 7.52 1.54%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 441.10 0.89%
hyperliquid
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 24.14 8.84%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 12.16 0.08%
usds
USDS (USDS) $ 1.00 0.12%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 3,531.59 1.57%
official-trump
Official Trump (TRUMP) $ 31.63 13.82%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000015 0.00%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 5.06 3.10%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00 0.08%
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 329.41 0.62%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 8.33 2.65%
ondo-finance
Ondo (ONDO) $ 1.44 0.26%
mantra-dao
MANTRA (OM) $ 4.70 35.38%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 9.21 2.02%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 225.03 2.34%
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 28.42 0.05%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 26.94 0.25%
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 1.19 0.61%
vechain
VeChain (VET) $ 0.047941 0.47%
crypto-com-chain
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.13774 0.36%
polygon-ecosystem-token
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL) $ 0.43908 1.85%
render-token
Render (RENDER) $ 7.05 3.18%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 1.00 0.02%
algorand
Algorand (ALGO) $ 0.40945 2.22%
bittensor
Bittensor (TAO) $ 414.71 12.83%