Morning Bid: Fed day focus is on what Jay says
2024.05.01 00:47
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
The marquee markets event for the week is almost upon us, and needs little introduction: The outlook for U.S. interest rates continues to be the elephant in the trading room for all asset classes, responsible not only for recent peaks in Treasury yields and the dollar, but also forming the backdrop for record runs and subsequent declines in the likes of gold and bitcoin.
The Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day powwow today with all ears trained on what Chair Jerome “Jay” Powell has to say in his news conference, which takes on extra weight in the absence of updated economic projections from the board this time around.
A cautious, hawkish tone seems likely given Powell has professed diminished confidence over a near-term cooling in inflation, following the economy’s abrupt pivot from a perfect soft-landing scenario to a very extended holding pattern, high above the runway.
Futures markets now just barely see a single quarter-point rate cut by year-end, from an many as five of those at the start of the year.
The Fed meeting has kept markets relatively well-behaved into the event, barring Wall Street’s steep slide overnight following more heated labour data, and the fireworks in dollar-yen at the start of the week in what now looks clearly like official Japanese intervention, despite finance ministry officials playing coy.
Even in that environment, king dollar grinds inexorably higher as two-year Treasury yields scale nearly six-month peaks.
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Holidays around most of Europe mean even less distraction from the week’s main event, although ECB policymaker Pablo Hernandez de Cos has a chance to air his views at the London School of Economics. Contrary to the Fed, money markets are more than 70% priced for a first euro zone rate cut as soon as the next meeting in June.
It’s business as usual for London, and Britain gets home price data and manufacturing PMIs.
The earnings calendar is light in the European day, but picks up again in the U.S., with Mastercard (NYSE:), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:) and Pfizer (NYSE:) among the diverse list of headliners.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
-FOMC concludes two-day meeting
-UK Nationwide house prices, S&P manufacturing PMI (both April)
-U.S. earnings including Mastercard, Qualcomm and Pfizer
(By Kevin Buckland; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
