Morning Bid: Event risks galore this week
2024.10.28 01:45
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan
A weekend election in Japan that has knocked the yen down to three-month lows, a heavy U.S. corporate earnings calendar, Britain’s budget and the fast-approaching U.S. election make for a week packed with excitement.
The yen is down and Japanese shares are up after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority in weekend elections, raising the spectre of drawn-out political wrangling and more fiscal stimulus.
Markets are also betting politics will make the Bank of Japan’s job more difficult, with policy normalisation already complicated by a fragile economy and unstable markets. It is expected to stand pat at its meeting ending on Thursday.
Monday is thin on economic data releases but the week ahead brings eurozone third-quarter GDP and inflation that may validate the European Central Bank’s dovishness.
Britain’s new Labour government unveils its first budget on Wednesday, and investors have sold UK stocks and gilts already in the run-up, unsure how finance minister Rachel Reeves can possibly balance high debt, public spending pledges and a promise not to hike the income tax.
It’s also peak earnings season on Wall Street. This week will be the busiest of the quarter with well over 150 companies set to post third-quarter results.
Five of the “Magnificent Seven” U.S. titans report: Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:) on Oct. 29, Microsoft (NASDAQ:) and Facebook parent Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:) on Oct. 30, and Apple (NASDAQ:) and Amazon (NASDAQ:) on Oct. 31.
The run of market-sensitive events continues the following week, with U.S. election Day on Nov. 5 and the Fed’s next monetary policy decision on Nov. 7, which could put investors increasingly on edge in the coming days.
The U.S. jobs report on Nov. 1 is just as crucial to investors debating if a stronger-than-expected economy could lead to fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than what is already priced in.
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
SPEAKERS: ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks in Madrid
EARNINGS: Koninklijke Philips (AS:) NV
(By Vidya Ranganathan; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
