Morning Bid: Countdown to CPI

07/11/2024

1 minute read

2024.07.11 01:17

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

No doubt there are some sore heads around the City today after Ollie Watkins’ stoppage-time strike sent England into Sunday’s European Championship final against Spain.

But the job of winning England’s first major trophy on foreign soil is not done and nor, in markets, is the campaign against inflation where much depends on the U.S. number due later in the day.

Stock markets have marched to record highs anyway, led by big tech gains in anticipation of rate cuts in the autumn.

On an annual basis U.S. June headline CPI is expected to slow to 3.1%, while core CPI is seen steady month-on-month at 0.2%, according to economists polled by Reuters.

As it stands, Fed funds futures are showing a 73% chance that the central bank eases at its September meeting, according to CME FedWatch. Inflation meeting economists’ forecasts will likely cement those expectations.

But rate-cut bets have swung wildly this year, and a surprise spike could further jolt projections, rattle asset prices and put the yen right back on the ropes.

The yen was stuck on the weak side of 161 per dollar in Asia on Thursday and markets in Tokyo and Taipei notched record highs, as they did in New York on Wednesday.

The Nasdaq is up more than 5% for the month already.

The Bank of Korea held rates, as expected, but dropped a warning about inflation risks from its statement in an echo of a similar shift in language a day earlier in New Zealand.

Sterling, meanwhile, made a four-month high as Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill did not tee up the August rate cut that some had expected.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

Economics: Final German CPI, UK monthly GDP, U.S. CPI