Morning Bid: Chinese consumers spend more, just not on property
2024.11.15 00:53
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu
Asian shares ended a brutal week on a steadier note helped by Chinese consumers pushing retail sales beyond forecasts after a blitz of policy support measures shored up… well, the stock market, mostly.
Yes, property sales picked up a tad but they are still down a whopping 15.8% from a year ago. A decline in property investment deepened and home prices fell the most in nine years – hardly the turnaround investors wanted to see.
Chinese shares trimmed losses after the data blast though blue chips ended up 0.4% off the pace. Still, that’s up 30% from a September low thanks to Beijing’s stimulus.
Globally, the bullish backdrop for share markets is waning a little as investors, who had revelled in the U.S. presidential election victory of Donald Trump, become increasingly concerned about the scope for U.S. policy easing in the new year – not unsurprisingly given the president-elect’s drastic trade and immigration policies.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments about there being no need to rush interest rate cuts sent short-term Treasury yields higher as the market scaled back wagers on a December cut to just 59% from 82% mid-week.
Fed fund futures for next year slumped with December off 8 ticks and implying just 71 basis points of easing by the end of 2025, less than three standard-sized cuts.
That is one reason Wall Street and European stock futures are in the red. Nasdaq futures were down 0.5%, EUROSTOXX 50 futures 0.4% and 0.2%.
That Fed outlook shift has reinforced expectations the Bank of England will not be cutting rates anytime soon, with the next move not fully priced in until March due to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ big spending budget.
The central bank will be watching third-quarter GDP figures closely with forecasts centring on a rise of 0.2% versus 0.5% in the prior quarter.
Britain’s economy has performed better than many feared this year and any beat will take out some out of the bets for a total easing of 62 basis points by the end of next year.
The U.S. will also have retail sales data later in the day. Again, with producer prices presenting an upside risk for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the Personal Expenditures Price Index – markets might not see a beat in retail sales as a good thing.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday: * U.K. third-quarter GDP * U.S. retail sales * Fed Boston President Susan Collins speaks * ECB board member Elizabeth McCaul takes part in a paneldiscussion * Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen takes part in a seminar.
