Morning Bid: China gloom vs Wall St vroom
2024.09.15 18:26
By Jamie McGeever
(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
Asia kicks off the trading week on Monday with investors likely to give a big thumbs down to yet another batch of uniformly disappointing economic indicators from China, while at the same time cheering one of Wall Street’s best weeks of the year.
Fueled by growing hopes that the Federal Reserve will kick off its interest rate-cutting cycle with a 50-basis-point cut rather than a quarter-point move later this week, U.S. stocks rose solidly on Friday, which could provide a good springboard for Asia on Monday.
The got to within 1% of its July 15 all-time high and the Nasdaq ended the week up 6%, its best week since October. Volatility across asset classes fell – the ‘MOVE’ index of implied Treasury market volatility is at its lowest since late July.
That’s the backdrop to the start of a hugely important week for markets around the world with the highlight being the Fed’s rate decision and revised economic forecasts on Wednesday, but maybe even more so for Asian markets.
Japan and Hong Kong release inflation data, and there are monetary policy decisions from Indonesia, Taiwan, China and the Bank of Japan later in the week. The local focus on Monday will be China and yet another wave of worrying economic data.
There are those in the more speculative corners of the investment community with a higher tolerance for risk, like hedge funds, who are bound to be looking at China right now as an attractive bet.
Stocks have fallen 15% in a couple of months and are flirting with the lowest levels in nearly six years, deflation hangs heavily over the economy, the growth outlook is darkening, and authorities appear unable or unwilling to unleash the stimulus required to turn all that around.
Capital inflows are drying up and outflows are picking up, forcing the central bank to act more vigorously to protect the exchange rate. Indeed, the yuan has strengthened notably in recent weeks.
But the data released on Saturday gave no indication that a broader and more lasting turnaround is in sight. If anything, they suggest such a scenario is as far away as ever.
Official figures on Saturday showed that new home prices fell at their fastest pace in nine years, industrial output growth slowed to a five-month low, foreign direct investment is down 31.5% and retail sales weakened further.
And on Friday, meanwhile, the Biden administration locked in steep tariff hikes on Chinese imports, including a 100% duty on electric vehicles. Beijing said it would take “necessary measures to resolutely defend the interests of Chinese companies.”
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Monday:
– Germany wholesale price inflation (August)
– New York Fed manufacturing index (September)
– U.S. 3-month, 6-month T-bill auctions
