Morning Bid: Britain at centre of bond market storm
2025.01.09 01:04
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
The British bond market has become the focus of global investor attention, for some unenviable reasons.
A 20-basis point spike in benchmark gilts this week to the highest since 2008 is being linked by analysts to a welling crisis of confidence in Britain’s fiscal outlook, despite no obvious catalyst for the current wave of selling.
Some are mulling the potential for a rout akin to the one that followed former premier Liz Truss’ disastrous mini budget of September 2022.
To be sure though, while the market views gilts as the centre of the bond storm, there are plenty more reasons to be a seller.
The euro zone is bracing for elevated bond supply amid an acceleration in inflation, which helped German bund yields pop to a five-month high on Wednesday.
And of bigger global consequence, the uncertain impact of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs and immigration curbs on inflation have both investors and Federal Reserve officials concerned.
The economic data stateside is already flashing warning signs about the stickiness of price pressures, spurring traders to pare bets for Fed easing this year to just 41 basis points, shy of the 50 basis points Fed officials mooted just last month.
Yields on benchmark Treasuries pushed to the highest since April at 4.73% before the notes found buyers.
Caution is likely to win out today in Europe, heading into a market holiday in the United States that will shutter Wall Street and shorten Treasuries trading.
There is also trade and output data from Germany on tap, along with euro-region retail sales figures.
A parade of potentially revelatory central bank speak is in the pipeline as well, with Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden giving a speech on the outlook for inflation and monetary policy at the University of Edinburgh business school.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, Philly Fed President Patrick Harker and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin also take the podium at various venues.
That’s ahead of the big macro event of the week, which looms on Friday in the form of the monthly U.S. non-farm payrolls report.
Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday: * Germany industrial production, trade data (both November) * Euro zone retail sales (November) * BoE Deputy Governor Breeden speaks * Fed officials Bowman, Collins, Schmid, Harker and Barkinspeak * U.S. stock market holiday
