Morning Bid: BOJ’s Ueda bolsters yen. Up next, Powell
2024.08.23 00:50
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu
The big mover in Asia was a 0.5% rise in the yen as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda disappointed some by saying the central bank still plans to raise interest rates if the economy and inflation turn out as forecast.
Fair enough. The market crash that prompted policymakers to turn dovish three weeks ago is in the rear view mirror. In some modest reaction to Ueda’s comments, the oscillated between gains and losses but was last up 0.4%, and domestic yields rose 2 basis points.
Supporting the governor’s view is inflation data out earlier in the day that showed Japan’s core inflation accelerated for a third straight month to 2.7% in July.
The “core core” index, which excludes food and energy costs, dipped to 1.9%, but that is still around the BOJ’s target of 2%.
Traders still ascribe a very low chance of a hike in October, but a move in December is now priced at 70%.
Elsewhere, sentiment turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole. Every major stock market fell, driven by a pullback in technology shares, although Wall Street futures were up slightly.
Europe is set for a mixed open, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures down 0.2% and up 0.2% amid little top-tier data for the region.
Powell’s address could move markets significantly, or turn out to be over-hyped. After all, his colleagues on Thursday already alluded to a rate cut in September, voicing support for a “slow and methodical” approach.
Taken together with surveys showing the U.S. economy still growing at a healthy pace, markets slightly pared back the chance of an outsized half-point cut in September to 24%, from 38% a day earlier.
A quarter-point cut is fully priced in.
Regardless of the size of the reduction, Democrats will be happy to see the Fed finally kick-starting its easing cycle before the presidential election in November .
Vice President Kamala Harris just formally accepted her party’s nomination on the last day of the Democratic National Convention.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
— Sweden unemployment rate for July
— Canada retail sales for June
— U.S. new home sales
— Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole
(By Stella Qiu; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
