Morning Bid: Beijing pulls out the policy stops

09/27/2024

2 minutes read

2024.09.27 00:54

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu

What a week it’s been for Beijing.

China’s leadership looks to be finally coming around to the reality of a faltering economy, and doing what markets wanted. You name it: RRR cuts, rate cuts, steps to bolster the share markets and even more fiscal support.

Beaten-down Chinese shares are now headed for their best week since 2008, with blue-chips up 3.6% on Friday and on track for a weekly gain of 15%. Hong Kong’s is headed for a nearly 13% weekly rise – its biggest since 1998.

It was a good week for just about every market whose fortunes are tied to China. An index of mainland Chinese property stocks surged 20% for the week. Iron ore prices clambered back above $100 a metric ton, broke above the key $10,000 a ton mark, gold hit another record and silver hit a 12-year top.

It remains to be seen if the rally will last. After all, China’s A-share market has repeatedly disappointed investors, with the benchmark CSI300 no higher than it was in 2007 while the is up almost 300%.

The China markets will be on hold after today for a week-long public holiday, and investors could have a change of heart if China’s reticent consumers don’t step up to the plate and boost spending, to get economic growth back in track.

While the week is drawing to close, there are still a couple more events on the horizon for investors to keep tabs on.

Japan’s ruling party is holding a leadership contest that is looking to be one of the most unpredictable in decades. The yen is jittery, hitting a three-week low of 145.56 per dollar on Friday.

Sanae Takaichi, minister in charge of economic security who has said the BOJ hiked rates too early, is among the front-runners. If she wins the contest, the yen could fall as markets further discount the chance of another rate hike this year. It’s currently priced at about 30%.

Results from the Liberal Democratic Party’s first-round balloting are expected around 14:20 JST (0720 GMT), with a likely run-off between the top two candidates following around 1530 JST (0830GMT).

Also on the schedule is the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Forecasts are centred around a small monthly rise of 0.2% and risks seem biased to the downside.

A benign number would provide scope for another outsized half-point rate cut from the Fed in November, although much will ultimately depend on the payrolls report next week.

Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:

— Japanese leadership contest