Economic news

Morning Bid: All about them payrolls

2024.09.06 01:08

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu

Whatever Friday’s U.S. payrolls report says, it’s going to move things.

Such is the power that the August non-farm payrolls data holds over the markets, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell bluntly stated policymakers did not want to see any further weakening in the labour market, laying the ground for imminent rate cuts.

Analysts are looking for new jobs to rise by 160,000 and for the unemployment rate to dip to 4.2%. But a recent run of softer partials suggests risks are to the downside, fuelling speculation of an outsized half-point rate cut on Sept. 18.

As things stand now, futures are implying a 40% chance of a cut of 50 basis points, and a weak report would likely double that probability while shoving bond yields sharply lower.

Equally, an in-line or stronger-than-expected outcome would likely snuff out the chance for 50bp, slamming bonds, although 25bp does seem done and dusted whatever the figure.

For equities, there’s the wrinkle of a possible recession. A weak report might make an outsized rate move more likely but would also stoke recession fears, and it’s not clear which would win out in market sentiment.

There is also a lot at stake for the Japanese yen. A weak report could push it through key resistance at 141.66 per dollar and to its highest so far this year, while strong numbers would likely wipe out this week’s 2% rally.

Oil is staring down its worst week in more than a year, after bullish news on U.S. inventories failed to inspire gains in a market that seems more fixated on economic worries. could really use a strong payrolls report to avert falling below $70 a barrel.

Trade on Friday brought only small moves in Asian shares all around, although Taiwan outperformed with a rise of 1%. Bonds held onto their gains in the week so far and the dollar nursed losses.

Nasdaq futures slipped 0.5%, while Europe looks set for a subdued open with EUROSTOXX 50 futures up 0.1% and down 0.1%.

While payrolls will dominate the markets’ attention, investors may also look for clues on the U.S. rates outlook from two prominent Fed officials, Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, who will be speaking later in the day.

In any case, it will likely be a day that seals the fate of a possible 50 bp cut by the Fed.

Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:

— Germany industrial output for July, Germany trade data

— Eurozone revised GDP data for Q2

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Thomas Calomiris looks over the books at his produce stand in Eastern Market in Washington, U.S., August 14, 2024. REUTERS/Kaylee Greenlee Beal/File Photo

— U.S. non farm payrolls for August

— Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Fed New York President John Williams speak

(By Stella Qiu; Editing by Edmund Klamann)



Source link

Related Articles

Back to top button
bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 75,996.36 1.17%
vested-xor
Vested XOR (VXOR) $ 3,405.08 99,999.99%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 2,907.57 3.21%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00 0.06%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 199.45 5.68%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 598.45 0.54%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 1.00 0.02%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 0.547769 1.30%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.198185 2.82%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 2,906.51 3.21%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.426321 15.12%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.161072 0.07%
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 3,445.21 3.60%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 4.86 0.68%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000019 1.10%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 27.48 1.45%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 75,964.35 1.48%
weth
WETH (WETH) $ 2,905.92 3.18%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 12.74 3.58%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 372.28 1.20%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 2.28 1.29%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 4.29 4.54%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 6.35 3.16%
usds
USDS (USDS) $ 1.00 0.18%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 71.04 0.20%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 3,059.75 3.24%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 8.73 2.22%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 4.18 0.17%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 9.65 0.49%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000011 3.93%
bittensor
Bittensor (TAO) $ 501.53 2.90%
fetch-ai
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) $ 1.40 0.83%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 7.70 1.25%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 1.00 0.08%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 165.12 1.58%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.101345 3.37%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 20.14 0.02%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00 0.00%
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 19.59 1.68%
kaspa
Kaspa (KAS) $ 0.112463 5.63%
crypto-com-chain
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.099916 16.19%
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 180.75 1.50%
polygon-ecosystem-token
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL) $ 0.344653 1.30%
blockstack
Stacks (STX) $ 1.64 2.16%
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 40.25 0.48%
first-digital-usd
First Digital USD (FDUSD) $ 1.00 0.06%
dogwifcoin
dogwifhat (WIF) $ 2.32 0.73%
arbitrum
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 0.571311 0.56%
filecoin
Filecoin (FIL) $ 3.71 0.92%
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.65454 2.84%