Morning Bid: After China’s stimulus sugar rush
2024.09.25 01:24
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
Beijing’s big shot of stimulus is still pumping through Chinese markets, but its effect on broader markets could already be fading.
Mainland blue-chips chased Tuesday’s 4.3% surge with gains up to 3.4% in today’s session and Hong Kong’s jumped as much as 3.1%, extending yesterday’s 4.1% rally.
China’s strong start to Wednesday initially helped to buoy stock benchmarks in Australia and South Korea – whose economies are closely tied to China’s fortunes – but those gains soon fizzled out.
From the moment of the Chinese authorities’ announcement on Tuesday of their biggest and broadest stimulus measures since the pandemic, analysts had looked through the euphoria to question whether anything would address core structural problems.
The reaction on Wall Street overnight was modest with advances between 0.2% and 0.5%, and U.S. futures at the time of writing were pointing about the same amount lower.
Concerns about a U.S. downturn following a big surprise weakening in consumer confidence, revealed in data on Tuesday, may have helped to temper any optimism about the global growth narrative.
Europe has plenty of economic worries as well, and futures indicate a lower start for stocks in the region.
Essentially, it all tells the same story: The global easing cycle is well and truly upon us (unless you’re in Japan).
The People’s Bank of China followed Tuesday’s volley of rate cuts with another reduction on Wednesday, and traders are leaning heavily towards a second super-sized Fed cut at the next meeting in November.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on the economic outlook later today, continuing a busy week of Fedspeak that includes Chair Jay Powell on Thursday.
In Europe, today’s schedule has the ECB’s Elizabeth McCaul participating in a roundtable and the Bank of England’s Megan Greene speaking on the topic of consumption.
Sweden’s Riksbank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points later in the day, and economists say two more are likely in the remaining two meetings of 2024.
Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen himself agrees with that assessment and is not taking the possibility of a half-point cut off the table.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
-Riksbank policy decision
-ECB’s McCaul, BoE’s Greene speak
-France consumer confidence, unemployment (both Sept)
(By Kevin Buckland; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
