Morning Bid: A JOLT of reality for markets

24 hours ago

2 minutes read

2025.01.07 06:16

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Amanda Cooper.

Trading action so far has been dominated by uncertainty over incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs. But the “will he, won’t he” narrative looks likely to take a backseat as a number of key metrics on the labour market start to filter through ahead of Friday’s jobs data.

The December employment report is expected to show 150,000 workers were added to nonfarm payrolls, down from November’s 227,000, which would bring the total number of jobs created in 2024 to 2.34 million. Excluding 2020, when the pandemic brought the global economy to a halt for months, this would be the smallest number since 2019’s 1.988 million. But it’s still pretty much in line with average annual job creation prior to 2020’s anomalous dynamics. U.S. exceptionalism is alive and well, it seems.

For better or for worse, investors have plenty of job-related data points to mull over in the run-up to the mighty NFP report on Friday, starting today, with the JOLTS report on job openings and the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing survey – where the employment component is likely to come under extra close scrutiny.

The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is expected to show job openings – a measure of demand for workers – remained roughly unchanged at 7.7 million in November, from 7.74 million in October. The October report showed the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers was 1.11, indicating an employment market in balance, which aligns nicely with the Federal Reserve’s mandate to ensure full employment. So far, so good.

The “but” here is the volatility of the survey itself, which is often subject to quite large revisions, and the fact that it is for the month prior to the upcoming NFP report, which makes it a tad backward-looking. But investors will no doubt react to it, given the heightened sensitivity of markets to U.S. rate expectations.

Hot on the heels of the JOLTS survey is the ISM non-manufacturing survey for December, which captures activity in the mammoth U.S. services sector. The November headline number came in at 52.1, above the 50-watermark that separates growth from contraction. On a seasonal basis over the last 10 years, December has tended to be one of the weaker months of the year for employment, with the sub-index averaging 51.3. November’s employment sub-index came in at 51.5, having hit a 13-month high of 53 the month before.

A separate reading of overall business activity, including the factory sector, shows the United States was the only major economy to show growth in November and since then, there has been little evidence in the data to suggest this may have changed much last month.

The futures market shows traders are fairly certain there will be no Fed rate cuts much before June. Nonfarm payrolls may be the one data point that can materially move the needle on that. But with so much of that expectation riding on the U.S. economy’s ability to generate jobs at a decent clip, anything in the run-up to Friday’s number that suggests otherwise could deliver an unwelcome jolt.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:

* November U.S. trade balance