Morgan Stanley sees global restaurant delivery industry reaching $810B by 2027

Morgan Stanley analysts told investors in a note Wednesday that they see the global restaurant delivery industry reaching ~$810 billion by 2027. That represents a 14% CAGR.

“We size the Global Restaurant Delivery TAM at $2.7trn in 2023, still only ~18% penetrated, with online restaurant delivery generating an estimated ~$480bn in sales set to grow at a ~14% ’23-’27 CAGR,” they wrote.

“This growth is driven by ~17%+ ’23-’27 growth in Asia, while North America, Europe, Oceania and LATAM (key regions for Uber and DoorDash (DASH)) grow at an ~8% CAGR over this same time period.”

As a result of the expected growth, Morgan Stanley expects (NYSE:) and DoorDash Inc (NYSE:) to drive share gains over the next four years, with DASH gaining ~100bps and UBER gaining ~200bps of share in their core restaurant delivery markets.

“Online delivery in the U.S. sits at only ~12% penetration of total restaurant sales, well below the penetration seen in countries like the UK (~22%), Australia (~27%), or Canada (~30%),” the analysts added.

“This may suggest that the growth runway in the U.S. is longer than appreciated, and may be one of the reasons why players like DASH have continued to post stronger than expected growth (driven by its core U.S. market) and favorable customer cohort trends (new cohort frequency increasing and retention near all time highs).”