Meta ‘key winner’ if a Tik Tok ban occurs – Raymond James survey

By Senad Karaahmetovic

Raymond James analysts weighed in on the debate surrounding the potential U.S. ban on TikTok. The analysts note a “significant momentum in Congress for policy actions” that could change TikTok U.S.’ structure/business model.

“We continue to view an outright ban as an outside near-term possibility,” they wrote in a client note.

The recent Gen Z survey conducted by Piper Sandler shows TikTok as the No.1 social media app in the U.S. with a 37% market share. Hence, many analysts believe that the policymakers will stop short of enforcing a ban on TikTok given the app’s popularity among the teen population.

“Our base case remains that legislation granting the government new powers to scrutinize and eventually ban platforms/technologies is likely, but a ban on TikTok would be a longer-term process, likely not before 2024 election,” analysts added.

In case the TikTok ban occurs, Raymond James’ survey shows Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:) as a “key winner”. 39% of survey respondents said they would be spending more time on Instagram Reels, followed by Facebook Reels (23%) and YouTube Shorts (19%), if the TikTok ban is enforced.

“Instagram Reels ranked highest among the 18-28 cohort (52%) while Facebook Reels ranked relatively higher among 30-44 and 45-60 cohorts. Globally, TikTok was estimated to generate $10B in revenues in 2022 (according to a The Information article) and we believe Meta Platforms would be the primary beneficiary of incremental ad spend should TikTok be banned,” analysts added.

The survey results also showed that TikTok (46%) and Instagram Reels (44%) are the two most used platforms for short-form video, followed by YouTube Shorts (37%) and Facebook Reels (36%).

“Among the 18-29 cohort, TikTok was used by 64% of respondents vs. Instagram Reels at 64% followed by YouTube Shorts (38%), Facebook Reels (24%), and Snapchat Spotlight (20%).”

Overall, TikTok represented 24% of total U.S. time spent in 1Q23, behind YouTube (34%), but above FB (22%), Instagram (16%), and Snap (NYSE:) (3%).

“Our survey results showed that Instagram (39%) and Facebook (23%) would be the primary beneficiaries of a ban followed by YouTube Shorts (19%). Hence, we believe Meta Platforms would be the clear winner if a ban were to occur in the U.S.,” the analysts concluded.