May retail sales bump in Germany not here to stay – analysts

(Reuters) – German retail sales rose more than expected in May from the previous month, data showed on Friday, though analysts said the surprise rise does not indicate a change in depressed spending.

The Federal Statistics Office said retail sales were up 0.4% month-on-month in real terms, beating expectations by analysts polled by Reuters that sales would remain unchanged.

Compared with May 2022, sales fell 3.6% in real terms.

“Even if May surprised us with an increase in retail sales and April also proved robust, the basic constellation of weak private consumption will change little for the time being,” said VP Bank chief economist Thomas Gitzel, who predicted that retail sales will fall again in June compared with the month before.

Alexander Krueger, chief economist at Hauck Aufhaeuser Lampe private bank, said consumers were still putting the brakes on spending due to real income losses. “In view of the poor consumer mood, the next months will be tough. This means that the general economic outlook is also gloomy,” he added.

A GfK institute survey on Wednesday showed that consumer sentiment is set to fall in July due to a decline in economic and income expectations, the indicator’s first setback after eight consecutive increases.

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