Markets see modest “Trump trades” as election results start to trickle in
2024.11.05 20:15
(Reuters) – Republican Donald Trump won Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky in Tuesday’s presidential election while Democrat Kamala Harris captured Vermont, Edison Research projected, as polls closed in the first six U.S. states including the critical state of Georgia.
Georgia is among seven battleground states likely to decide the winner of the contest, with opinion polls showing the rivals neck and neck in all seven – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – going into Election Day.
MARKET REACTION
* rose 0.44% as early results came in
* The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.335%
* The was up 0.73%
* Bitcoinwas up 2.9% at $71,164
COMMENTS:
BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN
“As the early results come in, even though none of them are that surprising, we are seeing Treasury yields rising a little bit, the dollar strengthening, bitcoin up; kind of a classic Trump trade. Treasury yields because of a market belief that Trump might be worse for deficit, the dollar’s move because of expectations of new tariffs, and bitcoin, well, Trump is a crypto ‘bro’. There’s not a lot of conviction in these moves; it seems like these are little pops. If conviction is high these trends move faster and farther, but this doesn’t have that snowballing feel to it. It’s still early days in terms of results.”
ADAM TURNQUIST, CHIEF TECHNICAL STRATEGIST, LPL FINANCIAL, CHARLOTTE, NC
“If anything, to read through (results out so far) it is maybe more toward Trump than anything, so futures and yields are moving higher . But it’s so early to see any kind of momentum”
“I traded the 2016 election, but I am not doing it this time. I made a little bit of money, but it was a long way from my high water mark with a lot of volatility.”
