Marketmind: What a fine mess
2022.10.11 16:27
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man on a bicycle stands in front of an electronic board showing Shanghai stock index, Nikkei share price index and Dow Jones Industrial Average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/FIle Photo
(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever
Sometimes it’s better to say nothing at all.
On Tuesday, investors were breathing a sigh of relief, even though the IMF cut its global growth outlook, warned that “the worst is yet to come” and highlighted significant risks to global financial stability.
Wall Street was still on course for a turnaround on Tuesday, even though the Bank of England intervened in the inflation-linked bond market, and Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester said monetary policy needs to stay restrictive “for some time” to bring inflation down.
But at the IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, BoE chief Andrew Bailey told UK pension funds they had three days to balance their positions before the BoE exits the market. No ifs, no buts.
Wall Street tanked, and sterling plummeted.
For Asia on Wednesday, two key events underscore the challenges economies, policymakers and investors are facing.
The Bank of Korea is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points to a decade-high of 3.00%, its latest step to lower inflation from recent 24-year highs and lift the won from its recent 13-year low against the dollar.
In India, meanwhile, figures are expected to show inflation rose last month to 7.3%, creeping back up toward April’s eight-year high of 7.8%. The rupee is even deeper in the mire than the won – this week it hit a record low of 82.82 per dollar.
Both the BoK and Reserve Bank of India have intervened in FX markets this year to support their exchange rates. They – and others – might have to do more, raising the risk that central banks offload more of their U.S. Treasuries.
GRAPHIC: Japan, China holdings of U.S. Treasuries (nominal $) –
Key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:
South Korea interest rate decision
Japan Tankan manufacturing, services activity (October)
Japan machinery orders (August)
India inflation (September)
India industrial production (August)
IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington
G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet
Fed minutes of Sept. 20 to 21 policy meeting
Fed’s Kashkari, Barr and Bowman speak
