Marketmind: Watching what the ECB giveth

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan.

The minutes of the European Central Bank’s October meeting and flash PMIs for a host of European countries are Thursday’s highlights in markets otherwise lulled by the Thanksgiving holidays in Japan and the United States.

The forward-looking flash November PMIs due out globally should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin. The euro zone PMI is already below the 50 number, suggesting economic activity is contracting. It is the same in Britain, while the U.S. Oct manufacturing PMI contracted sharply.

On ECB, the market is on a rumour-and-fact strategy, for it does seem like investors globally are so dovishly biased that they are only going to react to strength in data. Interest rate futures show the market is pricing in rate cuts by April and more aggressively so in June.

Still, it’s Thanksgiving time, so traders know not to trust every market move.

ECB speakers haven’t made it easier, either, to second-guess policy, given dovish comments from Mario Centeno, Governing Council member Joachim Nagel’s line on rates being close to their peak, and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s warning against premature celebration.

Later on Thursday, Sweden’s central bank will announce its latest policy decision in what is expected to be a very close call on whether to hike again. A Reuters poll showed 10 of 19 economists looked for a rise, while market pricing is leaning against a move.

A steady decision would likely be taken as the end of the cycle and put the crown under pressure, which argues for a hike today.

Meanwhile, sterling and the UK’s had a sobering take on UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt’s autumn budget and the accompanying sluggish economic outlook. Gilt yields are up, too, as investors took note of Hunt’s obvious pre-election ploy, and the future implications of tax cuts without funding.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

Econ: Global flash PMIs, Riksbank policy decision, ECB October policy meeting minutes

Earnings: Ackermans & Van Haaren NV, Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA, Virgin Money (LON:) UK

Speakers: ECB’s Isabel Schnabel and Robert Holzmann, Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhaun

Bond auctions: German re-opening of 12-year and 15-year government debt auctions

(By Vidya Ranganathan; Editing by Edmund Klamann)

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