Marketmind: US uncertainty feeds caution in Asia

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Asia markets correspondent Kevin Buckland.

European investors hoping to find some clues on market direction from Asia may be disappointed today.

Overall, the market mood was cautious ahead of the week’s trading highlight, Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report, which will put to the test the market’s view that the Fed is done hiking.

A regional stock benchmark eased back from a more than two-week high, the dollar was firm and Treasury yields remained elevated, despite coming off a bit in Tokyo. and gold were basically treading water.

However, the region’s biggest stock markets were outliers: rebounded sharply from losses in the previous session as strong earnings lifted the steel sector, and mainland Chinese blue chips jumped, showing little interest in data that revealed an unexpected decline in imports last month and slowing exports.

Every U.S. economic indicator has taken on added importance after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that the policy path will depend on incoming data.

Annual change in U.S. Consumer Price Index,

And there are several other reasons that investor attention is squarely on the U.S., with the debt ceiling tussle deadlocked and banking sector troubles simmering.

Lenders got a bit of respite overnight, after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators stand ready to mobilize the same tools used in previous bank rescues.

The Fed’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (‘SLOOS’) also buoyed the mood, showing tighter lending conditions but no impending credit crunch. Still, the proviso is that the results missed the latest turmoil around First Republic and PacWest.

Yellen also had a warning that failure to lift the debt limit would cause a huge hit to the U.S. economy and weaken the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, reiterating that the government could be out of cash by June 1.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

– ECB board members Philip Lane, Isabel Schnabel to speak at separate events

– U.S. National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) April survey of small businesses

– President Joe Biden and Republican lawmakers meet to discuss the debt ceiling standoff

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