Marketmind: Two-year U.S. bond yield dam bursts
2022.08.29 23:13
FILE PHOTO: People pass by an electronic screen showing Japan’s Nikkei share price index inside a conference hall in Tokyo, Japan June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Issei Kato
(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever
Another dam has burst, with the two-year rise to a 15-year high just shy of 3.50% flooding global markets with extra uncertainty and fear.
Wall Street managed to claw back some of its earlier losses on Monday but still closed in the red, a noteworthy development given the extent of Friday’s selloff. The failure to bounce back at all is a reflection of how jittery investors are right now.
Not only are they having to adjust to a hawkish Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank also appears poised to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes. Bonds are selling off globally, the dollar is surging, and no corner of the investment world is being spared the fallout.
The scale of the two-year U.S. bond yield rise is truly remarkable – a year ago it was as low as 16 basis points, today it nudged 350 bps. With the Fed likely to continue tightening, few would bet against it rising further.
China’s travails aren’t helping either. The yuan has sunk to a two-year low against the dollar and the psychological 7.00/$ barrier is within touching distance.
Chinese corporate earnings reports on Tuesday could give further clues on the health – or otherwise – of the property and financial sectors, with ICBC, Bank of China, China Construction Bank (OTC:CICHF), and China Resources Land all releasing first-half results.
Japanese jobs data is the headline release on Asia’s macro calendar on Tuesday – the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 2.6% – while rising rates are expected to put a dent in Australian house building approvals.
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:
Japan unemployment (July)
Australian building approvals (July)
