Marketmind: Red wave

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

The outcome of the U.S. midterm elections remains inconclusive – short of the Republican sweep some had expected.

The “red wave”, however, showed up in markets. The fell 2% on Wednesday and the dollar seemed to catch a bid from a wave of cryptocurrency selling. Bonds rallied with the risk-averse mood, which opens the door for disappointment as U.S. inflation data comes into focus later on Thursday.

Economists expect the annual headline rate to fall to 8.0%, the lowest since February, and Fed funds futures imply the market is close to evenly split on whether the Fed hikes by 50 basis points or 75 bps in December.

Signs of stickiness could push pricing for a peak in rates of around 5% to something a bit higher and put a floor under the greenback.

Share markets fell around Asia, with MSCI’s broadest ex-Japan index down 1%. European futures fell 0.6%.

Traders also have a keen eye on the unfolding disaster at crypto exchange FTX.

Bigger rival Binance has walked away from a bailout after due diligence, and as an executive at another rival, OKX, put it, there is a “dagger” over the market until the total damage is clear.

Graphic: Top crypto exchanges by volume –

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

U.S. CPI, ECB’s Isabel Schnabel and Fed’s Lorie Logan speak

Earnings: Zurich Insurance, RWE, Aegon (NYSE:), Delivery Hero, ArcelorMittal (NYSE:), Continental

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