Marketmind: Pressure points
2022.04.11 12:01
FILE PHOTO: Supporters of French President Emmanuel Macron, candidate for his re-election, react after early results in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election, in Paris, France April 10, 2022. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier
A look at the day ahead in markets from Saikat Chatterjee.
Relief that the far right did not win the first round of French presidential elections lasted only a few hours. The euro has slid back towards Friday’s levels while French stocks are set for a lacklustre start.
With French leader Emmanuel Macron and far right challenger Marine Le Pen both qualifying on Sunday for what promises to be a tightly fought presidential election runoff on April 24, risk premia on French assets will remain elevated in coming days.
Of more broader concern perhaps is the inexorable march higher in U.S. Treasury yields. That’s got stock futures pointing to a weaker start in Europe and the United States while so-called growth stocks — sectors such as tech that outperform when borrowing costs are low — are on the back foot.
Ten-year Treasury yields rose as high as 2.7840% in Asian hours on Monday, the highest since January 2019, for a 125 basis-point plus rise so far this year.
The yield has also risen above Chinese government borrowing costs for the first time in 12 years, while the dollar index earlier vaulted above 100 for the first time since May 2020..
Elsewhere, Chinese stocks were the biggest laggards in Asia as inflation data spiked higher, denting hopes for aggressive policy easing from Beijing.
There are plenty of key data points this week to occupy traders, above all U.S. consumer inflation figures for March (due Tuesday). A headline print above 8% is likely due to the fallout on energy costs from the war in Ukraine.
Then there is Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting, which will see policymakers caught between record high inflation and the economic hit from the war. Money markets are already pricing in around 70 bps of cumulative rate hikes for the rest of the year.
And finally first quarter earnings will kick off this week offering investors the first glimpse on how companies have dealt with a torrid quarter.
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday:
French lender SocGen to exit Russia with Rosbank sale
Central bank speaker corner: Fed’s Bostic, Bowman, Evans
UK February monthly GDP, industrial, manufacturing
U.S. 3-year Treasury note auction
Central bank meetings: Bank of Israel
SocGen agrees Rosbank sale as it prepares Russian exit
