Marketmind: Markets take mutiny in their stride, for now

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

Investors in the Asia session were circumspect after an extraordinary weekend in Russia, briefly bidding up oil a little bit but otherwise standing back to wait for clarity.

Mercenaries from the Wagner group were returning to their bases after a deal ended Saturday’s mutinous advance on Moscow.

Oil moved up as the instability could mean challenges for exporting Russian crude, but moves were only modest. The rouble gapped down to a 15-month low in Moscow.

Talk was also that the insurrection in Russian ranks opened an opportunity for Ukraine to press its advantage in battle.

But plenty of other possibilities opened too, with questions over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power, and most traders seemed to elect to do nothing for the time being.

U.S. and European futures rose about 0.3% through the Asia day. Asian stocks were steady and moves in the foreign exchange market were small – with little to shift last week’s dour mood as the economic outlook darkens.

Japan’s yen caught a brief boost from a summary of opinions at the last Bank of Japan meeting that showed one policymaker calling for an early revision of yield curve control.

Intervention remains a possibility as the currency slides to levels that triggered the government to step in last year, and on Monday Japan’s top FX diplomat toughened his tone, describing recent moves as “rapid and one-sided”.

The yen is down almost 9% year-to-date as markets have gradually priced in U.S. interest rates staying higher for longer, while excitement over any imminent policy tweaks, let alone hikes, in Japan has grown dimmer.

The yuan and Chinese stocks slid, catching up with global moves while China was on holiday on Thursday and Friday.

Later on Monday Germany’s Ifo business survey is due and is expected to show business morale and expectations further souring.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

German Ifo business survey

British CBI retail sales figures

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