Marketmind: Inflation first big test for BOJ’s Ueda

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

Japanese inflation figures for March and the first insights into economic activity around the world this month from flash PMI reports grab the spotlight on Friday, as investors reflect on mounting evidence of slowing U.S. economic and earnings growth.

Asian stocks – ex-Japan – are set for their worst week in six, a fate likely sealed by Wall Street’s slide Thursday after figures showed an increase in U.S. jobless claims and a much steeper-than-forecast slump in a key regional U.S. manufacturing index.

The Q1 U.S. earnings season took a bearish turn too as Tesla (NASDAQ:) posted its lowest quarterly gross margin in two years and AT&T (NYSE:) and American Express (NYSE:) missed market estimates for revenue and profit, respectively.

Steep falls in the shares of these companies and regional banks, a major source of investor concern, dragged down the main indices.

Lower bond yields failed to improve sentiment – recession fears pushed oil prices lower too – and this sense of gloom and unease is likely to set the tone at the open in Asia on Friday.

Graphic: MSCI Asia ex-Japan index – weekly change –

On the economic data front in Asia, figures are expected to show that core consumer inflation in Japan held steady at 3.1% in March, highlighting persistent price strains and keeping the central bank under pressure to ditch its super-loose ‘yield curve control’ policy.

Graphic: Japan core inflation –

This is the first major economic indicator since new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda took over earlier this month. He has insisted that the current monetary easing will remain in place for now, damping down prospects of a shift at his debut policy review on April 27-28, in which the central bank reviews its inflation and growth forecasts.

Ueda’s dovish comments have certainly been welcomed overseas. Foreign investors poured nearly $12 billion into Japanese equities last week, their biggest weekly net purchases since at least January 2018.

The flash purchasing managers index reports for Australia and Japan are released on Friday. Australian manufacturing and services activity contracted in March, as did Japan’s manufacturing sector.

Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

– Japan inflation (March)

– Japan and Australia flash PMIs (April)

– South Korea producer price inflation (March)

(By Jamie McGeever)

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