Marketmind: Debt impasse dominates in big day for politics

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland.

Politics has the spotlight at the start of a new week, falling chiefly – still – on the U.S. debt ceiling standoff.

Talks between President Joe Biden and lawmakers look likely to resume on Tuesday, after getting postponed on Friday.

Despite that setback, and deep partisan rifts, both Biden and analysts say there are signs of progress. Biden is confident enough that he’s still planning on boarding a Wednesday flight to Hiroshima for the G7 summit.

Investors, though, clearly want to see ink on paper. Equity markets weakened around most of Asia on Monday – with the notable exception of Japan – after the U.S. budget office backed the idea that Treasury funds will run out at the start of next month.

Currency markets though were paying more attention to stunning regional election results in Thailand and Turkey.

Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan defied pollsters and kept alive his hope of extending a two-decade rule by forcing a runoff after leading Sunday’s vote. The lira dipped to the lowest since March, when it was reeling in the aftermath of devastating earthquakes.

Meanwhile, the baht soared after Thai opposition parties crushed military-backed parties on the weekend, signalling wide and strong discontent with the ruling junta.

However, the liberal Move Forward party and the populist Pheu Thai Party will not only need to broker a deal with each other, but also somehow win the backing of the junta-appointed senate to form a government.

GRAPHIC: 2023 Thailand General Election: Preliminary results

The yuan touched a fresh two-month low amid worrying signs in data last week that the best part of China’s COVID recovery is already behind. Retail sales on Tuesday will be the next test of flaccid consumer demand, following shocking results from import and inflation numbers.

The People’s Bank of China is holding fire for now, opting to leave rates unchanged on Monday.

China may have its economic troubles, but it’s still flexing its geopolitical muscle, sending its top envoy on a tour of Ukraine, Russia and elsewhere in Europe from today to discuss a “political settlement” to the Ukraine crisis.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

Eurogroup meeting in Brussels

Euro zone industrial production data for March

NY Fed Manufacturing survey for May

Fed speakers including Raphael Bostic at Atlanta Fed conference

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