Marketmind: COVID blues

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga:

A nationwide spike in COVID-19 cases in China is again the main talking point for weary global markets on Tuesday as Beijing shut parks and museums and more cities resumed mass testing.

Analysts are pushing back growth expectations for the world’s second-largest economy, just as China had started to make adjustments to its zero-COVID policy, a move that gave investors some relief.

At a time when global markets are pricing in a slower-than-expected Fed pivot and inflation shows few signs of cooling, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development will publish its latest economic outlook on Tuesday.

The Paris-based policy forum had warned in September that energy and inflation crises risk pushing large economies into recessions and it was especially pessimistic about the outlook in Europe.

While the ECB has raised interest rates by 200 basis points in just three months from record lows as it attempts to fight double digit inflation, a policy maker pointed to smaller hikes.

Portuguese central bank chief Mario Centeno said the next increase in rates by the ECB could be smaller than the record 75 basis-point-hikes decided at its last two meetings.

UK public finances data is due today. Last week finance minister Jeremy Hunt announced tax hikes and spending cuts to fix the country’s balance sheet and its economic policy reputation after former prime minister Liz Truss’s controversial “mini-budget”.

Investors will also pay close attention to oil prices, a day after key producer Saudi Arabia denied a report it was discussing an increase in supply with OPEC and its allies.

futures steadied at $87.85 a barrel after plunging by more than $5 a barrel to 10-month lows. Still, Brent crude is up 13% so far this year, marking one of the strongest performances in any asset class.

In the world of cryptocurrencies, crypto lender Genesis said it had no plans to file for bankruptcy imminently, days after it suspended customer redemptions.

Concerns about Genesis follow the collapse of FTX, one of the world’s biggest crypto exchanges, which has shattered investor confidence.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

Economic data: UK October public finances, Euro zone Nov consumer confidence, Sep current account

OECD releases economic outlook

U.S. economic data: U.S. Nov Philly Fed survey

U.S. earnings: Baidu (NASDAQ:), Hewlett-Packard

Fed speakers: James Bullard, Esther George and Loretta Mester

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