Marketmind: Big Divides

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan.

As global markets reassess the U.S. interest rate horizon, yawning yield spreads, trade gaps and political divides underpin the dollar around the world – especially in Asia.

This week’s U.S. inflation surprise raised the whole U.S. interest rate structure for the next year or more. The Federal Reserve’s expected peak policy rate next March jumped by almost half a percentage point to 4.4% – two full points above current rates – and two-year Treasury yields hit 15-year highs of 3.84%.

A torrent of U.S. retail, manufacturing and employment soundings on Thursday will give that another reality check.

But while Europe’s central banks are at least partially matching the Fed in trying to get across their own inflation problem, authorities in China and Japan are not and the exchange rate strains continue to build.

China’s weakened again on Thursday toward two-year lows near 7 per dollar. Despite money market operations by the People’s Bank of China to support the unit onshore, its overall monetary policy is easing to support the sputtering economy and five of China’s largest banks cut deposit rates on Thursday. China will release a slew of data on Friday.

With Shanghai stocks underperforming on a more mixed day for other Asia bourses, the fractious geopolitical backdrop doesn’t help.

China said it had lodged a “solemn representations” with the United States after a U.S. Senate panel advanced legislation that would enhance U.S. military support for Taiwan.

And the deepening partnership between China and Russia is watched in the West with anxiety. Chinese President Xi Jinping meets Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin in Uzbekistan on Thursday.

Japan’s refusal to tighten monetary policy is keeping pressure on the yen, meantime. The combination of a soaring dollar – up 25% against the yen this year – and sky-high energy import costs saw the country post a record trade deficit in August.

And there were official doubts about the effectiveness of currency market action without a change of monetary policy. A senior member of the country’s ruling party warned that efforts to stop the yen’s sharp falls through unilateral market intervention would only have a limited impact.

World stocks and U.S. equity futures held steady in the background.

In the crypto world, ‘s long-awaited ‘Merge’ appears to have happened without any major price distrubance. Software for the Ethereum blockchain has been overhauled, drastically reducing its energy usage, its inventor and co-founder tweeted.

The prices of both Ether and have halved this year.

In Britain, new finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng caused a political stir amid reports he’s considering scrapping caps on bankers’ bonuses to boost London’s post-Brexit competitiveness against financial capitals like New York and Hong Kong.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:

* Russia President Vladimir Putin and China President Xi Jinping meet at Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan

* European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos; board member Elizabeth McCaul and Bank of Portugal chief Mario Centeno all speak

* U.S. August retail sales and industrial production; weekly jobless claims; Aug import/export prices; Philadelphia Fed’s September business index; NY Fed’s Sept manufacturing index

* Canada August housing starts

* U.S. SEC chair Gary Gensler speaks before Senate Banking Committee

* Corporate Earnings: Adobe (NASDAQ:)

GRAPHIC: US 2-yr Yield Premia

GRAPHIC: Japan’s record trade deficit

GRAPHIC: Ether and Bitcoin halve in value YTD

(By Mike Dolan, editing by Kim Coghill; mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com. Twitter (NYSE:): @reutersMikeD)

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