Market May Be Near a High
2023.04.05 10:46
SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 2/6/23 at 4110.98
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX (NYSE:) on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
Long Term SPX monitor purposes; Neutral
The above chart is the daily SPDR® (NYSE:). The pink area shows the times when the 10 day TRIN was above 1.20, a reading which shows panic and usually comes near lows in the SPY. The blue area shows when the 10 day TRIN is below .80 and a reading that shows euphoria and normally comes near highs in the SPY.
Right now, the ten day TRIN stands at 1.08 and near neutral reading for the market. If the rally continues (which we think it will) the ten day TRIN may drop to .80 or lower and give us a “Heads up” that market may be near a high and develop near 470 on the SPY. The purple area shows where most of theten0 day TRIN reading was above 1.20, which was from the 370 to 405 range on the SPY and lasted ten months, suggesting a support area.
This sideways pattern appears to be breaking out to the upside and gives a target to the 470 range, the January 2022 high. Some exciting statistics; Pre-election years (this year), April is up 94% of the time. If January was up (it was up over 6%), April is up 88% of the time.
The chart is updated to today’s trading; what we said yesterday is still relevant. “The breakout out area on the monthly SPY chart is near the 405 level, which was exceeded on last Friday’s close. There was also a “Sign of Strength” for the month of March (noted in are chart). The pattern that appears to be forming is a “Head and Shoulders bottom” and has a measured target to the 470 level, which is the January 2022 high.
The SPY didn’t quite get to the 50% retracement level measured from the March 2020 low (50% level noted on the chart). A 50% retracement suggests the market will at least rally back to the old high (January 2022 SPY 470) or can mark the halfway point of the move up, giving a much higher target. The bottom window is the monthly Slow Stochastic, which turned up last November, suggesting an uptrend was started back then.”
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