Major brokerages now expect Fed to cut rates in September

2024.08.06 05:36

August 6 (Reuters) -Brokerages including J.P. Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo have forecast a 50 basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September after a surprisingly weak U.S. employment report for July.

The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% in July amid a significant slowdown in hiring, fuelling concerns fears that the labor market was deteriorating and potentially making the economy vulnerable to a recession.

BofA Global Research brought forward its expectation of the first cut to September from December, while other major brokerages now expect the Fed to cut rates in all the three remaining meetings of the year.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after the July unemployment data:

New rate cut estimates Old rate cut estimates (in

(in bps) bps)

Sept Nov Dec Sept Nov Dec

Goldman 25

Sachs 25 25 25 25

BofA

Global Research 25 — 25 — — 25

UBS 50 25

Global Wealth 50 25

Management

J.P.Morgan 50 50 25 — — —

Wells 25

Fargo 50 50 25 25

Nomura 25

25 25 25 25

Deutsche

Bank 25 25 25 25 25 25

Morgan

Stanley 25 25 25 25 25 25

Citigroup 50 50 25 25 25 25

TD

Securities 25 25 25 — — —

Peel

Hunt 25 25 25 25 — 25

Barclays 25

25 25 25 25

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

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