Key Market Sectors Remain Above Critical Support at 50-Week MA
2024.08.12 03:49
Did this past week really resolve which way the Modern Family wants to go from here?
In some ways yes and other ways no.
Yes
- All are still holding their 50-week moving averages
- remain in a bullish phase with a good bounce off the 50-WMA
- The slopes on all the moving averages both 50 and 200 WMA are pointing up
- Biotechnology corrected perfectly to the 200-WMA and bounced-phase is accumulation-money flow is positive
No
- Granny remains above the 50-WMA but could not clear the 200-WMA-phase is recuperation
- held the 200-WMA but the bounce looks weak, so IWM has more to prove
- held the critical support above the 200-WMA, but closed the week questionable on whether it can clear the 50-WMA-phase is caution
- look confused. After a 3-week run higher, they are closing lower for the 2nd week in a row. The phase is recuperation.
That makes the prediction for next week not so easy.
This is why we will call for a lifeline from the Family’s relatives-long bonds and junk bonds to help us.
Turning our attention to the long bonds , the evidence leans more to risk-off.
First, TLT had a golden cross in July.
Secondly, TLT is above the July 6-month calendar range.
Third, TLT outperforms .
Finally, Real motion shows us that momentum is bouncing.
If the Family is looking for reasons to raise a lot of cash, this is it.
One thing I have learned through the years—
If the market is confused, why should anyone think they shouldn’t be as well?
After all, if I am going to follow anyone’s opinion, it will always only be the opinions that the Family offers. If they are confused, I lighten up.
ETF Summary
- S&P 500 (SPY) 540 resistance with 505 next support
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 210 resistance 199 support
- Dow (DIA) 380 support
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 430 support
- Regional banks (KRE) 50-52 support
- Semiconductors (SMH) 212 support 240 resistance
- Transportation (IYT) 61 support 63.50 resistance
- Biotechnology (IBB) Could not hold recent rally-but ok if maintains a price above 135
- Retail (XRT) Time to watch Monday’s lows to hold
- iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 77.00 the nearest key support
