Jefferies downgrades Novartis despite long-term optimism

Investing.com — Analysts at Jefferies in a note dated Tuesday have lowered their rating for Novartis (SIX:) (NYSE:) to “hold” from “buy”, reflecting a more cautious outlook on the company’s near-term performance. While the brokerage remains optimistic about Novartis’ long-term potential, factors like upcoming product releases, market dynamics, and revised financial projections have influenced this decision.

Novartis has had a strong year, with its stock price increasing by over 20%. This rise has led Jefferies to believe that much of the potential upside from recent positive developments is already reflected in the current stock price. 

The brokerage has also revised its price target to CHF105 from CHF110 per share, signaling only a modest 3% potential upside from the current levels. This adjustment suggests that the market may have already priced in the benefits from recent upgrades, leaving little room for further immediate gains without new, substantial catalysts.

A critical factor in Jefferies’ downgrade is the anticipated delay in market optimism surrounding Novartis’ new product launches, including Scemblix, Pluvicto, and Fabhalta. 

“However, it will take time into 2025 for approvals & ramp-ups to drive wider optimism in trajectory to 2030+,” the analysts said. This delay tempers the near-term outlook for Novartis, even though these products are expected to drive substantial long-term growth.

Jefferies analysts have pointed out that while they remain more optimistic than consensus on Novartis’ long-term sales and profit trajectories, their near-term growth projections for 2024 to 2026 are relatively modest. 

“However, we see modest 1%-3% cons upside 2024-26E after the recent upgrade cycle and believe it may take time for approvals and launch ramps to build wider belief beyond this period,” the analysts said.

Jefferies surveyed U.S. doctors to gauge Scemblix’s potential for treating chronic myeloid leukemia. The survey results support a bullish outlook, with significant market penetration expected by 2029. 

Although initial physician feedback is positive, more definitive proof of Scemblix’s effectiveness compared to other treatments is needed. This could slow down wider adoption, making near-term prospects less certain.

Pluvicto, another key drug in Novartis’ pipeline, also faces challenges in realizing its full commercial potential. 

While Jefferies maintains a bullish stance on Pluvicto’s peak sales, achieving these figures will require overcoming significant hurdles, such as improving patient access to radioligand therapies and securing earlier-line treatment approvals. 

The uncertainty surrounding these factors contributes to the tempered short-term expectations, despite the drug’s promising outlook.

Jefferies remains bullish on Novartis’ future despite  the downgrade. They predict that the company’s sales and profits will surpass current market expectations by 2030. 

This optimism is fueled by the anticipated success of several key products, including Scemblix, Pluvicto, Fabhalta, Kisqali, and Cosentyx. These drugs are expected to drive significant growth for Novartis in the coming years, solidifying the company’s position in the pharmaceutical market.