Japan’s revised Q3 GDP likely to show slow recovery in test of BOJ’s optimism: Reuters poll
2024.12.06 01:57
TOKYO (Reuters) – The Japanese economy likely expanded in the third quarter at the same moderate pace as initially reported, a Reuters poll showed, but a bump in private consumption may be temporary and could cast doubt about policymakers’ view on the outlook for growth.
Cabinet Office data is expected to show gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 0.9% on an annualised basis in the three months to Sept. 30, the same as the advanced reading released on Nov. 15.
The revised numbers would translate into a quarter-on-quarter expansion of 0.2%, also unchanged from the preliminary figure.
The revised GDP data is expected to show that capital expenditure, a barometer of private demand, inched up 0.1% in the third quarter, reversing from a 0.2% drop in the initial estimate.
The slightly more positive outcome reflects a boost seen in the recent third quarter data in corporate spending on plant and equipment, analysts at SMBC Nikko Securities said in a report.
“The economic assessment for the July to September period of 2024 has slightly improved, but there has been no significant change,” the analysts said.
While the slight pick up in domestic demand indicators will be welcomed by policymakers, the Bank of Japan’s view that the economy is in a moderate recovery trend might be challenged in coming months as global growth slows and uncertainty over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies chill investments.
The government said private consumption in the July-Sept preliminary GDP was helped by the recovery of new car sales following the suspension of shipments caused by the certification scandal, though more recent data show households are still holding back on spending.
The GDP data will be announced on Monday at 8:50 a.m. (Sunday 2350 GMT).
Separate data from the Bank of Japan will likely show that corporate goods price index in November edged up 0.2% month-on-month, the poll predicted. The index, which measures prices of goods companies charge each other and will be published on Wednesday at 8:50 a.m. (Tuesday 2350 GMT), likely jumped 3.4% compared to a year ago.
Japan’s current account is projected to increase to a surplus of 2.318 trillion yen ($15.47 billion) in October from a surplus of 1.717 trillion in the previous month, according a poll. The finance ministry is expected to release the data on Monday at 8:50 a.m. (Sunday 2350 GMT).
($1 = 149.7900 yen)
