Japan Sept inflation seen easing, export growth to slow: Reuters poll

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2024.10.11 00:45

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s core consumer inflation rate likely eased in September as energy costs eased due to government subsidies, while export growth slowed sharply, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

The core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, was expected to have risen 2.3% in September from a year earlier, easing from 2.8% growth in August, a poll of 18 economists showed.

“The pace of increase in consumer inflation likely eased due to lower prices of electricity and city gas, while those of some foods such as rice were higher,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

The poll also found that exports are expected to have risen 0.5% in September from a year earlier, sharply weaker than a revised 5.5% rate in August.

Imports were forecast to have risen 3.2% from a year earlier, resulting a deficit of 237.6 billion yen ($1.60 billion) in September. August imports rose 2.3%.

“Export growth is expected to be modest as the global manufacturing activity is weak,” said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.

The internal affairs ministry will release the CPI data at 8:30 a.m. on Oct. 18 (2330 GMT, Oct. 17), and the finance ministry will announce the trade data at 8:50 a.m. on Oct. 17(2350 GMT, Oct. 16).

Machinery orders, a highly volatile but leading indicator of capital spending for the coming six to nine months, likely fell 0.1% month-on-month in August, the same rate of decline as in July, the poll showed.

“Although firms’ positive investment appetite remains, there are signs of postponing their capital spending due to factors such as the stagnation of China’s economy,” said Tsunoda at Shinkin Central Bank.