Japan October inflation likely eased, exports picked up – Reuters poll
2024.11.15 00:14
TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s core consumer inflation likely cooled for the second straight month in October on slower growth in energy prices, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
The core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, was expected to have risen 2.2% in October from a year earlier, from 2.4% growth in September, a poll of 19 economist showed.
“The base effect of the government’s halving of subsidies for electricity and city gas bills in October last year is expected to show, and growth in energy prices is expected to slow,” analysts at SMBC Nikko Securities wrote in their report.
The internal affairs ministry will release October CPI data on Nov. 22 at 8:30 a.m. Japan time (Nov. 21 at 2330 GMT).
A Reuters poll conducted on Oct. 3-11 showed a very slim majority of economists projecting the Bank of Japan to forgo raising rates again this year at its December meeting, although nearly 90% expect rates to rise by end-March. But the yen has weakened considerably since, hurting households by raising import costs.
The poll also showed exports are expected to have risen 2.2% in October from a year earlier, reversing a 1.7% drop in September.
Imports were believed to have decreased 0.3% from a year earlier, resulting in a deficit of 360.4 billion yen ($2.30 billion). Imports climbed 2.1% in September.
“Although the U.S. economy is still holding firm, overall global trade is in a sluggish state,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
Machinery orders, a highly volatile but leading indicator of capital spending for the coming six to nine months, likely rose 1.9% in September, following a 1.9% drop in August, according to the poll.
The finance ministry will publish the trade data at 8:50 a.m. on Nov. 20 (2350 GMT on Nov. 19), while the Cabinet Office will announce the machinery orders data at 8:50 a.m. on Nov. 18 (2350 GMT on Nov. 17).
($1 = 156.4100 yen)
