Japan Nov CPI forecast to slow down as energy costs ease: Reuters poll

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s core consumer inflation was expected to ease in November, slowing down to the level seen in mid-2022, partly as energy price gains weakened, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which strips out volatile fresh food items, was seen rising 2.5% in November from a year ago, the poll of 17 economists showed, down from a 2.9% increase in October.

It would be the slowest pace of increase since a 2.4% growth marked in July 2022 but would mean the index has stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for over a year.

“Falls in energy prices accelerated and food price gains eased, while charges for accommodations remained high,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

“It is probably certain that inflation has peaked out in Japan,” he said.

The government will announce the November CPI data at 08:30 a.m. on Dec. 22 (2330 GMT, Dec. 21).

Next weeks’ data also includes exports for November, which likely grew only modestly because of the global economic slowdown, especially China’s economy.

Exports were seen up 1.5% in November from a year earlier, rising for a third month after a 1.6% gain in October, the poll found.

“Auto-related exports are expected to be firm thanks to easing supply constraints. But machinery-related shipments likely contracted due to the sluggish Chinese economy,” said economists at SMBC Nikko Securities.

Imports were forecast to have fallen 8.6% in November from a year earlier, which would result in a trade deficit of 962.4 billion yen ($6.79 billion), according to the poll.

The finance ministry announces trade data at 8:50 a.m. on Dec. 20 (2350 GMT, Dec. 19).

($1 = 141.8100 yen)

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