Japan manufacturers less confident in November on worries over China, inflation: Reuters poll
2024.11.05 18:44
TOKYO (Reuters) – Japanese manufacturers were less confident about business conditions in November than in October, a Reuters monthly poll showed on Wednesday, as China’s economic slowdown and a persistently high rate of inflation soured sentiment.
Confidence in the service sector also eased for the fifth consecutive month to its lowest since February 2023 due to rising costs and a shortage of labour, the poll showed. Both manufacturers and non-manufacturers cited a particularly volatile foreign exchange market as a concern.
The Reuters Tankan poll closely correlates with the Bank of Japan’s quarterly business survey. For November, its manufacturer sentiment index fell to plus 5 from plus 7 in October.
“Japanese automakers’ slump in the Chinese market is a concern for the auto parts business and environment-related products remained lacklustre due to China’s sluggish market,” a manager at a ceramics firm wrote in the survey.
The International Monetary Fund last week flagged risks to Asia’s economy, including a prolonged debt crisis in China’s property sector which is rippling through the economy. Japan’s exports to China slumped in September.
The Reuters poll surveyed 505 major, non-financial companies from Oct. 23 through Nov. 1. It received 240 responses, on condition of anonymity, many voicing concern about rising costs.
“Although there is demand, material prices are gradually rising, putting pressure on profit,” a manager at a non-ferrous metal firm wrote.
Some respondents mentioned clients delaying investment decisions before the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
Manufacturers expect business confidence to improve only slightly over the next three months, to an index of plus 6.
The Reuters Tankan service-sector index was plus 19 in November from plus 20 in October. That was the lowest since the 17 of February 2023.
Soft demand from China and rising costs were joined by extreme weather in hurting service-sector confidence. One bright spot supporting sentiment was inbound tourism.
Still, non-manufacturers expected business conditions to improve over the months through February to an index of plus 25.
The Reuters Tankan indexes are calculated by subtracting the percentage of pessimistic responses from optimistic ones. A positive figure indicates optimists outnumber pessimists.
