Japan July inflation likely picked up, boosting case for more BOJ rate hikes: Reuters poll
2024.08.15 23:55
TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s consumer inflation rate likely picked up in July for a third consecutive month, a Reuters poll of 18 economists showed, keeping the central bank on course to consider another rate hike after lifting short-term rates to 0.25% last month.
Other data next week is forecast to show that export growth accelerated in July thanks to recovering auto and chip-related shipments, although it would undershoot import gains and result in a trade deficit.
The core Consumer Prices Index (CPI), which excludes fresh food but includes energy items, likely rose 2.7% year-on-year in July, ticking up from a 2.6% rise in the previous month.
Although price hikes in food and service costs like hotel fees decelerated, the end of the government’s energy subsidies likely led to a faster headline inflation figure, said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, citing an earlier Tokyo-area inflation data for July.
That would put the inflation rate above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the 28th straight month, supporting BOJ officials’ view that the central bank should keep normalising adjusting its ultra-easy policy if the economy and prices move in line with its projections.
Data on Thursday showed Japan’s economy expanded by a much faster-than-expected annualised 3.1% in the second quarter, rebounding from a slump at the start of the year thanks to a strong and much-needed rise in consumption, further supporting the view that more rate hikes are on the cards.
Elsewhere in the poll, economists predicted exports likely rose 11.4% on year in July, faster than June’s 5.4% gain. Imports were forecast to have grown by even faster 14.9%, due in part to weak yen’s impact on energy imports, versus 3.2% in the previous month, leaving an estimated trade deficit of 330.7 billion yen ($2.22 billion).
The internal affairs ministry will release the CPI data at 8:30 a.m. on Aug. 23 (2330 GMT, Aug. 22), and the finance ministry will announce the trade statistics at 8:50 a.m. on Aug. 21 (2350 GMT, Aug. 20).
Machinery orders, a highly volatile but leading indicator of capital spending for the coming six to nine months, likely rebounded to 1.1% month-on-month growth in June after a 3.2% decrease in May, the poll showed. The data is due at 8:50 a.m. on Aug. 19 (2350 GMT, Aug. 18).
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