Italian growth to be weaker than government targets, IMF and business lobby say
2024.10.22 11:26
MILAN (Reuters) -Italy’s economic growth this year and next will be weaker than the government’s targets of 1% and 1.2% respectively, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the country’s main business lobby said on Tuesday.
The euro zone third-largest economy will expand by 0.7% in 2024, in line with last year’s rate, the IMF said in its “World Economic Outlook”, unchanged from its previous estimate in July.
It forecast next year’s growth at 0.8%, marginally down from 0.9% previously projected.
Business lobby Confindustria issued similar forecasts of 0.8% this year and 0.9% in 2025, with both bodies implicitly indicating that the expansionary measures in Rome’s 2025 budget presented this month will not boost the economy as intended.
Giorgia Meloni’s government said that tax cuts and extra spending in the budget would raise next year’s growth to 1.2% from a 0.9% projection under an unchanged policy scenario.
Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti acknowledged this month that this year’s growth target may be out of reach after downward revisions to the first two quarters made by national statistics bureau ISTAT.
The statistics office said so-called “acquired growth” at the end of the second quarter stood at 0.4%, down from the 0.6% estimated prior to the revisions.
The IMF and Confindustria are the latest groups to recently issue growth forecasts below those of the government, following the Bank of Italy and the parliamentary budget watchdog UPB.
