Investor reaction to South Korea’s political crisis
2024.12.04 00:32
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – South Korean shares fell on Wednesday amid the country’s biggest political crisis in decades as lawmakers called for the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol after he declared martial law only to reverse the move hours later.
The surprise declaration late on Tuesday jolted markets, leading to a sharp selloff in everything South Korean, with the currency hitting a two year low on Tuesday but stabilising on Wednesday. The benchmark Kospi Index lost nearly 2%.
Here are some comments from fund managers:
SAT DUHRA, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, ASIA DIVIDEND INCOME, JANUS HENDERSON, SINGAPORE
“The situation appears to be a political gamble that has not paid off. I don’t plan to add to Korea in this uncertainty. Despite the market being cheap and having underperformed—which is usually an enticing factor for investors—there’s not enough to see the won stabilise.
Investors have been wary of the so-called ‘Korea discount’ and this only reinforces the sentiment. Prospects of an impeachment, uncertainty from a leadership change, and an overall unexciting macroeconomic outlook will deter foreign investors. I would rather add to China against this backdrop. A Trump administration introduces an additional layer of uncertainty, particularly for exporters.”
DANIEL TAN, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, GRASSHOPPER ASSET MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE
“In the longer term, the martial law episode would accentuate the ‘Korean Discount’ — an elevated risk premium — with trading Korean-related assets, equities, FX and bonds. A reflection of the ‘Korean Discount’, Korea’s equity benchmark currently trades at 0.8 times one-year forward estimated book value, while the trades at closer to 3 times. Investors could require a bigger risk premium to invest in the won and Korean equities.
However, we are unlikely to see extended selloffs in South Korea, as long as the government and Bank of Korea maintain their commitment to provide ‘unlimited liquidity’.”
