Instant view: China’s November export growth slows ahead of Trump tariffs
2024.12.09 22:50
(Reuters) – China’s exports grew at a slower pace in November than the bumper month before, while imports unexpectedly shrank, in a worrying sign for the world’s No. 2 economy as Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House brings fresh trade risks.
U.S. President-elect Trump has pledged to slap an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods in a bid to force Beijing to do more to stop the trafficking of chemicals used to make fentanyl.
Outbound shipments from the world’s second-largest economy grew 6.7% year-year-on-year last month, customs data showed on Tuesday, missing an 8.5% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 12.7% rise in October.
KEY POINTS:
* Crude oil: November imports at 48.52 mmt, up 14.3% y/y
* Unwrought : Nov imports at 528,000 mt, down 4.1% y/y
* Coal: November imports at 54.98 mmt, up 26% y/y
* Iron ore: November imports at 101.86 mmt, down 0.86% y/y
* Rare earths: November imports at 4,416 mt, up 4.99% y/y
Preliminary table of commodity trade data
Below are comments from analysts on the commodities data.
COMMENTS ON IRON ORE
PEI HAO, ANALYST, FREIGHT INVESTOR SERVICES, SHANGHAI
The trend is in line with our expectations as miners’ pressure to lift shipments to achieve annual targets has eased after a wave of high shipments earlier in this year; ore demand did pick up last month but that was mainly reflected in the drawdown in portside inventory.
CHENG PENG, ANALYST, SINOSTEEL FUTURES, BEIJING
Despite a slight fall, ore imports last month still hovered at a relatively high level due to high shipments and a pick-up in demand since October.
COMMENT ON STEEL EXPORTS
JIANG MENGTIAN, ANALYST, CONSULTANCY HORIZON INSIGHTS
November steel exports remained high as rush shipments continued due to concerns over tariffs imposed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. We expect total steel exports this year to surpass the record high set in 2015.
LINKS: For details, see the official Customs website (www.customs.gov.cn)
BACKGROUND:
China is the world’s biggest importer and top buyer of coal, copper, iron ore and soybeans.
