HSBC upgrades XPeng to Buy, sees VW deal as major milestone

HSBC Global Research upgraded XPeng (NYSE:) to a Buy rating (From Hold) and raised their 12-month price target on the stock to $22.00 (from $15.40) as HSBC analysts see the electric vehicle company’s recent deal with Volkswagen (ETR:) as an important milestone, as well as a trigger for revenue and earnings growth.

The two companies plan to cooperate on electric vehicles and autonomous driving software, as well as collaboratively create two EVs branded under VW. They will leverage the platform employed by XPeng for its G6 model in this joint development effort.

“The deal was a major reason why XPeng’s US and H-shares have risen 26% and 28% (vs. S&P500 -1% and the HSCI +3%) since 24 July,” the analysts wrote in a note.

“As EVs become increasingly commoditized, we see differentiated software as an important competitive advantage which will boost sales. A tie-up with a global brand like VW should also increase traction with consumers.”

HSBC predicts that the company’s net losses for 2024-25 will reduce by 1% and 8%, primarily driven by increased sales volumes and revenue from software services. They have revised their revenue estimates for 2024 and 2025, raising them by 7% and 17% respectively, with software services benefiting from the VW deal and growing consumer demand for the latest autonomous driving features.

The company may experience potential catalysts, including strong momentum in new car orders due to the VW deal and the nationwide launch of its city navigation-guided pilot in the second half of 2023. Additionally, a robust new car cycle and continued policy support could contribute to its growth.

Shares of XPEV are trading up 0.14% Monday morning.