How to build a portfolio resilient to geopolitical risks? UBS highlights 3 strategies

Geopolitical tensions have intensified recently, with the U.S. bolstering its military presence in the Middle East in anticipation of a possible clash between Iran and Israel.

At the same time, Israel is expanding its evacuation orders while continuing strikes in the southern Gaza Strip, while Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region marked one of the largest since the war between the two countries began in 2022.

According to UBS strategists, market shocks from wars and geopolitical crises have historically had only temporary effects on asset prices and long-term market growth.

While investors often feel the urge to sell due to immediate uncertainty, UBS believes that selling is typically counterproductive.

“This is because it locks in otherwise temporary losses and hampers investors’ ability to participate in the next market recovery,” strategists at UBS said in a note.

“Instead, we favor strategies to improve the resilience of portfolios and remain invested,” they added.

Specifically, UBS pointed out three strategies investors can use to achieve this.

1) ‘Hold a well-diversified portfolio:’ According to UBS’s strategists, only by diversifying across various asset classes, regions and sectors can investors “effectively manage short-term risks while growing long-term wealth.”

Diversification is seen as a way to reduce portfolio volatility, access multiple sources of return, and avoid behavioral biases during uncertain times. Ultimately, UBS emphasizes that “time in the market, not timing the market, is what delivers the most powerful results.”

2) ‘Consider allocation to hedge funds:’ UBS also advises investors to explore an allocation to hedge funds.

The investment bank notes that hedge funds have historically demonstrated an ability to capture tactical dislocations across sectors and asset classes to generate alpha while adhering to strict risk limits.

“Indeed, certain hedge fund strategies are well positioned to help investors navigate geopolitical shifts and capitalize on a turn in the interest rate cycle, in our view.”

3) ‘Utilize gold, oil, and the Swiss franc as portfolio hedges:’ Lastly, strategists highlighted that commodities, primarily gold and oil, and currencies like the Swiss franc can serve as powerful portfolio hedges in times of escalating geopolitical tensions.

They see the bullion as an interesting opportunity, particularly in light of concerns about geopolitical polarization, the U.S. fiscal deficit, and a potentially more aggressive path of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

“We see gold prices rising to $2,600/oz by the end of the year amid strong demand from central banks, ETFs, and safe-haven flows,” they said.

Meanwhile, oil prices are expected to rise toward $87/bbl in the coming months due to healthy demand and OPEC+’s reluctance to add additional supply to the market. Finally, the Swiss franc, considered a traditional safe haven, “should continue to live up to its reputation” and appreciate further from its current level, UBS’s team said.