Hodler’s Digest, Dec. 29 – Jan. 4 – Cointelegraph Magazine
2025.01.04 20:44
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Top Stories of The Week
Odds of 2025 US Solana ETF listing top 77%: VanEck research head
The odds of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are even higher than a popular betting market’s optimistic forecast, according to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research.
On Jan. 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket said the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 are around 77%. In a post on the X platform, Sigel described Polymarket’s forecast as “underpriced.”
Sigel’s optimism mirrors industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Trump said he wants to make America “the world’s crypto capital.”
Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds increased to approximately 84% as of Jan. 2, according to its website.
Terraform co-founder Do Kwon appears before US judge, pleads not guilty
Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon appeared before a US magistrate on Jan. 2, 2025, and pleaded not guilty to charges in the first legal hearing for the former tech executive since his extradition to the US.
The embattled crypto founder appeared in Manhattan before US Magistrate Judge Robert W. Lehrburger of the Southern District of New York on Thursday afternoon to submit his plea and agreed to be held without bail.
The former tech executive faces nine counts of various charges, including securities fraud, wire fraud, money laundering charges and commodities fraud, for his role in the collapse of the Terra ecosystem.
A status conference is set for Jan. 8, 2025, for the defense and the prosecution to share evidence and discuss motions leading into the trial.
The hearing marks a milestone in the legal saga of the former tech executive, which has taken several turns since 2023, as Montenegrin court officials weighed extraditing the Terraform co-founder to the United States or his homeland of South Korea.
Memecoins will continue to lose market share to AI agent coins: Dragonfly VC
AI agent tokens will continue outperforming memecoins in 2025, but their momentum may fizzle out by 2026, according to a venture capitalist.
“Memecoins will continue to lose market share to ‘AI agent’ coins. I consider this a migration from financial nihilism to financial over-optimism,” Dragonfly Capital managing partner Haseeb Qureshi said in a Jan. 1 X post.
Qureshi said the “AI agent craze” will probably persist through 2025, but it won’t last forever. As more advanced AI products come along, people will lose interest in social media chatbots.
“It will die off eventually. This is not the long-term disruption to watch out for from AI, but it will be CT’s fixation because it is the most social,” he said.
AI agent chatbots have become popular in the crypto industry, offering crypto users insights and market price predictions.
Over the past 24 hours, total memecoin trading volume dropped almost 21.5%, while trading volume among the top AI and data tokens rose by 7.95%, according to CoinMarketCap.
China tightens crypto trade oversight with new forex rules
China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange introduced rules requiring the country’s banks to monitor and flag risky trades involving crypto assets.
On Dec. 31, the South China Morning Post reported that mainland China’s new rules will make it more difficult for residents to buy digital assets.
Under the rules, banks must monitor and report risky forex trading activities. This includes cross-border gambling, underground banks and illegal cross-border financial activities involving crypto assets.
Chinese regulators also require banks to track the activities based on the identity of individuals and institutions involved, their sources of funds and the frequency of their trades.
Liu Zhengyao, a lawyer at the ZhiHeng law firm in Shanghai, said that the new rules will provide another basis for punishing crypto trading, and added that China’s regulatory stance toward crypto may continue to tighten.
IRS issues temporary relief on crypto cost-basis method changes
The United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has issued a temporary relief for a rule that would have defaulted crypto holders on centralized exchanges to a less-than-ideal accounting method.
The initial IRS ruling stated that if investors holding crypto assets with a CeFi broker don’t select their preferred accounting method, like HIFO (Highest In, First Out) or specific identification, the broker will default to reporting sales using the FIFO method.
FIFO, otherwise known as “First In, First Out,” is the default method for calculating capital gains tax in the US. It is calculated by assuming the oldest cryptocurrency bought is sold first, pushing up a taxpayer’s capital gains.
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“You won’t have to be locked into FIFO as before,” Cointracker head of tax strategy Shehan Chandrasekera said in a Dec. 31 X post.
Chandrasekera warned that imposing this rule immediately could have “been disastrous” for many crypto taxpayers during a bull market.
Winners and Losers
At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $96,601, Ether (ETH) at $3,448 and XRP at $2.42. The total market cap is at $3.40 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.
Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are DeXe (DEXE) at 59.13%, SPX6900 (SPX) at 55.02% and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) at 41.76%.
The top three altcoin losers of the week are Bitget Token (BGB) at 15.94%, Movement (MOVE) at 13.69% and Hyperliquid (HYPE) at 12.73%. For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraph’s market analysis.
Most Memorable Quotations
“What began as a satirical commentary on cryptocurrency with Dogecoin has evolved into a sophisticated market vertical that attracts significant capital flows and institutional attention.”
DWF Labs, crypto venture capital firm
“Institutional adoption is expected to reach unparalleled levels, further bolstered by significant inflows into U.S.-based Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.”
Steno Research, independent financial research firm
“While the possibility of a new catalyst cannot be ruled out, we wouldn’t be surprised if Ethereum struggles to deliver meaningful rallies next year.”
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research
“In my view, a few weeks of consolidation could set the stage for a massive breakout. $131.5K+ by Q1 2025 feels inevitable. See you there.”
Jason Williams, entrepreneur and investor
“Current agents can easily be manipulated into saying crazy things that damage their brands, or can be jailbroken to steal all of their resources.”
Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly Capital
“Emerging narratives like AI-driven investments, decentralized AI agents, and tokenized assets hint at a tech-driven shift, though with added risk.”
Alvin Kan, chief operating officer at Bitget Wallet
Prediction of The Week
Ether could struggle to deliver meaningful rallies in 2025: 10x Research
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, said Ether might not be the wisest investment choice for a 2025 bull run, as the asset may deliver underwhelming returns compared with Bitcoin.
Other analysts said they are waiting for more confirmation from the price charts to see which way it will go.
“While the possibility of a new catalyst cannot be ruled out, we wouldn’t be surprised if Ethereum struggles to deliver meaningful rallies next year,” Thielen said in a Dec. 30 market report.
“While we appreciate Ethereum’s volatility, we believe it remains a poor medium-term investment and expect ETH to underperform BTC once again in 2025,” Thielen said. “As a result, our stance on Ethereum remains clear: ‘avoid.’”
Thielen said one of the most important metrics to watch in 2025 will be the trend in active validators. Still, he noted that the growth rate of validators had turned negative, dropping by about 1% over the past 30 days, raising concerns about the increasing risk of more validators exiting the network.
FUD of The Week
Cybertruck explosion at Trump hotel linked to bomb or fireworks: Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said a bomb or fireworks caused a Tesla Cybertruck explosion outside the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, in what authorities are investigating as a possible act of terror.
Explosive materials were carried in the bed of the rented Cybertruck and thus weren’t related to the Cybertruck itself, Musk said in a Jan. 1 follow-up post on X after confirming that Tesla was investigating the incident: “All vehicle telemetry was positive at the time of the explosion.”
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Police have said that the Cybertruck was filled with fireworks mortars, gasoline tanks and camping fuel.
Officials have not confirmed the identity of the driver of the Cybertruck, who was killed in the explosion that wounded seven others, but said a joint investigation of federal, state and local authorities was working to identify the suspect and determine if it was an act of terrorism.
“Current findings suggest this was an isolated incident with no indication of a larger plan,” the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department said in a post on X.
Illegal crypto ads prevail in UK despite FCA warning
Illegal crypto ads continue to appear in the United Kingdom despite its financial regulator asking crypto projects to remove their advertisements targeting the country.
According to a Financial Times report, 54% of the 1,702 alerts issued by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) between October 2023 and October 2024 ended in illegal crypto ads being taken down. The report said the rest of the crypto-related promotions are still up.
The FCA has not yet fined companies that failed to remove crypto ads that violate the FCA’s rules. Regulations require digital asset promotions to get approvals from the FCA or an FCA-authorized business before going live.
Top Magazine Stories of The Week
How crypto laws are changing across the world in 2025
Crypto firms are leaving Europe as regulations tighten, but the future is brighter in America as crypto friendly regulators take over.
I became an Ordinals RBF sniper to get rich… but I lost most of my Bitcoin
I trained under the guidance of a wise old Bitcoin RBF sniper and landed in the crossfire of a war between snipers and NFT marketplaces.
Down to $200 one day, Pixels founder had $2.4M the next: Luke Barwikowski, X Hall of Flame
Luke Barwikowski says the early days of building Pixels were spent juggling work on a dairy farm, staying in surf hostels and sailing in New Zealand.
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Cointelegraph Magazine writers and reporters contributed to this article.
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