Hochschild Mining shares plunge following costly 2025 outlook and RBC downgrade

Investing.com — Hochschild ‘s (LON:) share price dropped sharply on Wednesday, plummeting over 14% after the company released a production and cost update that revealed higher-than-expected capital expenditures and operating costs for 2025. 

The update, which came alongside full-year 2024 results, prompted concerns about the miner’s ability to sustain its financial performance in the face of rising costs.

Hochschild reported gold equivalent production of 347,000 ounces for 2024, broadly in line with expectations, but its guidance for 2025 has cast a shadow on its outlook. 

The company projected all-in sustaining costs for the year to range between $1,587 and $1,687 per ounce, roughly 5% above estimates from analysts at RBC Capital Markets. 

Additionally, capital expenditures for 2025 were forecast at $197 million to $208 million, a 7% increase compared to previous projections. 

Inflation and unfavorable currency dynamics, particularly the lack of a devaluation in the Argentine peso, were cited as major factors driving the cost increases.

This update contrasts sharply with the recent surge in Hochschild’s stock price (up 170%). 

The revised figures indicate lower profit margins in 2025 and potential difficulties in managing upcoming capital expenditures.

RBC Capital Markets, which had previously rated Hochschild as “outperform,” downgraded the stock to “sector perform” following the update. 

The brokerage also cut its price target to 260 pence from 300 pence, reflecting a tempered outlook for the miner.

RBC analysts pointed out that, while Hochschild’s production figures remain solid and its Mara Rosa project in Brazil is expected to double free cash flow in 2025, the elevated costs and capex commitments in subsequent years could limit shareholder returns. 

The analysts also noted that a portion of the company’s 2025 production is hedged at an average gold price of $2,301 per ounce, reducing the potential benefits of higher gold prices in the short term.